Can WTI sustain gains above $90.00 as US-Iran tensions linger and bullish conviction remains weak?

Buying interest supports WTI for a second successive day, but further gains remain limited.
A geopolitical risk premium continues to underpin crude as the US-Iran impasse persists.
With the crucial US NFP report approaching, traders appear reluctant to take fresh positions.

Buying interest in West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Crude Oil benchmark, remains tentative amid geopolitical uncertainty, despite a second consecutive advance on Friday. Trading just above the psychological $90.00 level, the commodity is up around 0.50% on the day. The rise extends its rebound from $86.00, a low not seen in over two months, reached the previous day, but firm bullish conviction is still absent.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Crude oil prices continue to draw support from a geopolitical risk premium as threats to commercial shipping persist, even with crude shipments recovering through the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, President Donald Trump said the US may have to destroy the rest of Iran, adding that people would know soon enough if he acted. Differences between the US and Iran over Tehran's nuclear programme also remain unresolved. Trump stated that Iran cannot undertake any activity related to its nuclear programme without US approval.

Expectations of renewed US military strikes against Iran have, however, eased following a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections. On Wednesday, top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer pledged to press for an end to the Iran war, saying his party could leverage control over government funding to pursue that objective. Hopes of a diplomatic settlement to the eight-month-old US-Iran war therefore remain alive. This might discourage aggressive bullish positions and limit any substantial rise in crude oil prices.

Despite the recovery, crude is still heading for a steep weekly decline of around 12%, with its direction dependent on further developments in the Middle East crisis. Another potential source of financial-market volatility is the widely followed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for release later in the North American session. The data could also create short-term trading opportunities in crude oil.

What does WTI's daily chart show?

Can WTI Sustain Its Technical Recovery?

A recent break above $89.88, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the broader advance, has established an immediate demand zone for WTI. Its near-term outlook remains constructive while prices hold above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $86.10. Resistance next comes at $95.31, the 23.6% Fibo. level. Beyond that, the cycle high around $104.09 serves as a more distant upside target.

Should prices retreat, the first support area lies at $89.88, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibo. retracement. Further below, the 200-day SMA and the nearby 50% retracement form a support cluster within the $86.10–$85.49 range. Buyers would be expected to return in this band if the pullback deepens.

(An AI tool assisted in preparing the technical analysis for this article. Learn more.)

WTI Oil: Common Questions

What defines WTI Oil?

Traded in international markets, WTI Oil is a variety of Crude Oil. Short for West Texas Intermediate, WTI is one of the three principal varieties, alongside Brent and Dubai Crude. Its relatively low gravity and sulphur content account for the descriptions “light” and “sweet”, respectively. Regarded as a high-quality oil, it is easy to refine. WTI originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. As an oil-market benchmark, its price is regularly cited in media reports.

Which forces shape WTI Oil prices?

Supply and demand determine WTI Oil prices, as they do for other assets. Stronger global growth can lift demand, while weaker growth can have the reverse effect. On the supply side, political instability, wars and sanctions can cause disruptions that affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a grouping of major oil-producing countries, are another important influence. WTI Crude Oil prices are also affected by the US Dollar's value because most oil trading is denominated in US Dollars. A weaker US Dollar can therefore make oil more affordable, while a stronger currency can make it less affordable.

Why do inventory figures affect WTI Oil prices?

WTI Oil prices respond to weekly oil inventory releases from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA), as stock changes signal shifts in supply and demand. Falling inventories may point to stronger demand and lift oil prices. By contrast, a build-up in stocks may indicate greater supply and weigh on prices. The API releases its report every Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two sets of figures tend to be similar: 75% of the time, they are within 1% of one another. As the EIA is a government agency, its data is regarded as more reliable.

How do OPEC's decisions affect WTI Oil prices?

Production quotas for OPEC's member countries are agreed collectively at meetings held twice a year. OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) comprises 12 oil-producing nations, and its decisions frequently influence WTI Oil prices. Lower quotas can restrict supply and lift oil prices; an increase in production has the reverse effect. The broader OPEC+ grouping adds ten non-OPEC members, with Russia the most notable among them.