EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Pair hovers near 176.50 following a drop below the nine-day EMA

Initial support for EUR/JPY could emerge at 175.07, its 12-month low.
Bullish momentum remains muted, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index reading 45.73.
At 176.91, the nine-day EMA marks the nearest resistance.

Bearish sentiment continues to weigh on EUR/JPY, which is trading near 176.80 in Friday’s Asian session after declining for a second straight day. On the daily chart, the cross remains inside a descending channel, with technical analysis pointing to a prevailing downside bias.

Trading below both the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) keeps the near-term outlook for EUR/JPY bearish. With these short- and medium-term averages positioned above the current price, recovery attempts remain constrained for now. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 45.73, below the neutral 50 mark, signalling muted bullish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

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A further decline could take EUR/JPY towards its first support at 175.07, the 12-month low recorded on 30 October. Beyond that, the descending channel’s lower boundary around 174.00 comes into focus. Should the cross break below the channel, it would have room to move towards the region of its 15-month low at 169.72.

If EUR/JPY recovers, its first test could be the nine-day EMA at 176.91. The next hurdle is the descending channel’s upper boundary, close to the 50-day EMA at 178.59. Clearing this medium-term moving average would trigger a bullish reversal, supporting a move towards the area around 187.95, the all-time high recorded on 17 April.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY: What Does the Daily Chart Indicate?

Why do structural outflows still weigh on the Yen despite distorted rate signals?

Structural flows continue to restrain the Yen, even though recent official action has clouded its usual relationship with interest rate differentials, according to analysts at MUFG/BTMU. They note that “intervention in last July / early August” has “distorted the link with rates.” Even so, the analysts emphasise the clear underlying message from the currency’s performance: “what the movement of the yen does indicate is that there are still some structural flows that continue to weigh on yen performance and those flows could well be slow to change.” The implication is that persistent portfolio and FDI outflows remain a major headwind for JPY despite shifting rate dynamics, with a rapid reversal in those flows unlikely.

(An AI tool assisted in writing the technical analysis in this story. Learn more.)

How Is the Euro Performing Today?

The Euro recorded its weakest performance against the Japanese Yen today. The table below sets out the Euro’s (EUR) percentage moves against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.18%	0.12%	-0.02%	0.20%	0.54%	0.58%	-0.01%
EUR	-0.18%		-0.07%	-0.21%	0.03%	0.36%	0.40%	-0.20%
GBP	-0.12%	0.07%		-0.13%	0.10%	0.43%	0.47%	-0.13%
JPY	0.02%	0.21%	0.13%		0.23%	0.57%	0.60%	0.00%
CAD	-0.20%	-0.03%	-0.10%	-0.23%		0.33%	0.37%	-0.22%
AUD	-0.54%	-0.36%	-0.43%	-0.57%	-0.33%		0.04%	-0.56%
NZD	-0.58%	-0.40%	-0.47%	-0.60%	-0.37%	-0.04%		-0.58%
CHF	0.01%	0.20%	0.13%	-0.01%	0.22%	0.56%	0.58%

This heat map displays the percentage moves of major currencies relative to one another. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Euro on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.