Can AUD/USD defend key 0.6900 support as NASDAQ rout drives a break below 0.6950?

• A break below 0.6950 takes AUD/USD to 0.6931, a decline of over 1%.
• Risk aversion spreads as the Nasdaq 100 slumps over 5.52%.
• Ahead of NFP, the Aussie faces pressure from RBA pause expectations and robust US jobs data.

A sharp deterioration in risk appetite and a sell-off in US technology shares sent the Australian Dollar down over 1% on Thursday. Robust US employment figures also supported the US Dollar ahead of Friday’s key Nonfarm Payrolls report. Having reached a high of 0.7024, AUD/USD now trades at 0.6931.

Can AUD/USD avoid the bottom of its trading range as a sharp tech sell-off and hawkish Fed comments hit the Aussie?

Risk aversion dominated the session as US equities slumped, with the NASDAQ 100 losing over 5.52% on the day. A CNBC headline described the index as falling “into correction territory”. Speculation has intensified that the Democrats controlling the US Congress may seek AI regulation, alongside concerns over a possible slowdown in data centres.

The US economic releases were firm: Initial Jobless Claims declined to 189K for the week ending 31 October, against expectations of 196K. October’s Challenger Job Cuts stood at 43.994K, down from 43,281, representing a 2% increase. Nevertheless, companies intend to recruit over 444,692 workers in October, a rise of 57% from the 2025 figures.

The Greenback found support in hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.  A gradual approach to rate increases is Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack’s preference, she said, stressing that more work remains for the Fed. Richmond Fed Thomas Barkin subsequently described “broad-based” inflation as still too high and echoed Hammack’s call to proceed gradually.

Against this backdrop, a decisive break through 0.7000 accelerated AUD/USD’s slide below 0.6950. The pair remains in consolidation despite the retreat, although its position at the lower end of the 0.6900-0.7030 range raises the likelihood of further bearish movement.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders now price a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, compared with 82% a day earlier, as hawkish bets continue to be pared back.

Australia has no economic releases scheduled for Friday. Signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), however, have led investors to remove further rate increases from their pricing. Prime Terminal revealed that investors now expect rates to remain unchanged at least until the monetary policy meeting on 22 June 2027.

Next on the US calendar are October’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, the Unemployment Rate and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Can support contain the bearish pressure?

A near-term bearish bias persists on the daily chart, where AUD/USD trades at 0.6928 below a cluster of simple moving averages (SMA) with a latest composite reading near 0.7050. A series of rising trend-line projections, now offering overhead resistance at roughly 0.7120 to 0.7470, also sits above the price. These barriers underline the market’s limited upside despite a rebound from oversold conditions earlier in the month. At around 39, the 14-period Relative Strength Index indicates weak but stabilising downside momentum: selling pressure has eased, yet sellers retain control.

The first upside hurdle is the triple SMA zone near 0.7050. Beyond it lie a rising trend line around 0.7123 and a more significant horizontal barrier at 0.7198. Easing the prevailing bearish structure would require a daily close above these resistance levels. Immediate downside support, meanwhile, comes from a shorter-term ascending trend line near 0.6923. Should selling gather pace again, a deeper structural floor lies near the earlier downtrend reference around 0.6347.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)