Hyperliquid Price Forecast: Will HYPE test $78.4 support as CFTC approves US equity perpetuals?

• Individual stock perpetuals will come under joint SEC and CFTC supervision after the CFTC approved them as security futures.
• A lawsuit contesting the CFTC's clearance of single-stock perpetuals has been joined by Cboe, Citadel Securities and the Healthy Markets Association.
• The confluence of the 100-day EMA and $78.42 could provide support for HYPE.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is trading at $81.73 as qualifying domestic exchanges gain a new route to offer perpetual futures. US regulators have allowed contracts linked to individual stocks to trade on these exchanges.

What does CFTC clearance mean for US equity perpetual futures?

Trading in perpetual futures linked to individual equity securities can start on registered contract markets that also have Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recognition, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced on Tuesday.

Under the existing regulatory framework, the contracts known as equity perpetuals have been deemed approved as security futures products, according to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig. This classification brings them within the joint oversight of the CFTC and SEC.

Chairman Selig said: “The Equity Perps demonstrate the strength of the ongoing commitments of the CFTC and SEC to support lawful innovation, uphold market integrity, and ensure investor and customer protection through the harmonization of the CFTC’s and SEC’s regulatory frameworks,”

Following the earlier clearance of Bitcoin perpetual futures on a CFTC-regulated exchange, Selig characterised the latest decision as a further step in the agency’s push to bring perpetual derivatives onshore.

Explaining his position, he said: “I believe that bringing these types of innovative products into our regulated markets ensures that American investors and traders can access these products within the protections of the CFTC’s proven regulatory framework, rather than being forced to turn to offshore, and often unregulated, venues,”

Industry participants had spent months seeking clearer rules for perpetual markets before this approval. The Senate’s CLARITY Act did not progress in a procedural vote on 15 September, leaving regulators to use agency action to pursue elements of the market-structure agenda.

Why is Cboe challenging the CFTC approval?

A court challenge to the approval is already under way. The Capital Markets Alliance brought a lawsuit on Tuesday in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, asking the court to overturn the CFTC’s clearance of single-stock perpetual derivatives. Cboe Global Markets became a party to the case, together with Citadel Securities and the Healthy Markets Association.

According to the alliance, the contracts qualify as security-based swaps and therefore belong within the SEC’s jurisdiction. It contends that the CFTC overstepped its authority and breached the Administrative Procedure Act.

In Cboe’s view, permitting securities-linked products to operate outside the established framework could undermine investor safeguards and give rise to regulatory arbitrage.

Alongside these developments, Hyperliquid continues to examine routes for bringing its perpetual markets into a regulated US environment. An agreement announced last week by ICE and Trade[XYZ] envisages a dedicated US market and clearing structure built on Hyperliquid.

Exclusive operation of the regulated markets will rest with ICE, which also intends to make a strategic investment in Trade[XYZ]. Subject to regulatory approvals, the proposed venue would give retail participants access to perpetual contracts linked to equities, commodities, currencies and crypto.

Hyperliquid technical outlook: Can $78.4 and the 100-day EMA support HYPE?

Near-term sentiment towards HYPE remains bearish on the daily chart, with the token trading at $81.73 below its 50- and 20-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) of $82.64 and $83.40, respectively. Underlying trend support comes from the 100-day EMA at $78.08, above which the price continues to hold. However, several nearby overhead resistance levels leave rallies vulnerable. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 47.27 signals a mildly weak tone, while the Stochastic reading near 34 suggests that upward momentum is fading following the recent recovery.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance at the 50- and 20-day EMAs, followed by a firmer hurdle at the horizontal level near $85.04. Further up, the break area of the downward-sloping trend line around $87.68 is likely to restrict gains before the higher horizontal level of $97.84 comes into play. If prices weaken, the confluence of the 100-day EMA and $78.42 provides immediate support, with the horizontal floor at $75.69 next in focus. A sharper decline would bring successive support levels of $67.63 and $61.16 into view.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)