Aussie below 0.7000: Why has an RBA hike failed to counter US election woes?

• Can AUD/USD withstand mounting geopolitical uncertainty?
• Bullock offers no forward guidance as RBA lifts rates to 4.85%.
• With US midterm voting underway, Iran dismisses claims of an imminent peace deal.

Pressure on the Australian Dollar leaves AUD/USD down 0.44% at 0.6965 late on Tuesday, with US midterm voting underway and geopolitical uncertainty weighing on sentiment. Prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran war have stalled after Iran rejected claims that an agreement was close.

Why is AUD/USD extending losses despite the RBA rate hike as US election uncertainty and stalled Iran peace talks weigh?

Whether the Democrats can secure the US House of Representatives and the US Senate is in focus as the first US midterm exit polls approach. Another question is how US President Donald Trump will respond to the result. Polymarket, meanwhile, puts the probability of a Democratic Senate win at 75% and the likelihood of a Democratic majority in the House at 95%.

On the US-Iran conflict, a draft memorandum of understanding delivered to Iran by the Qatari delegation has received Washington's approval. A senior Iranian official nevertheless said the US and Iran remain far from an agreement to end the war.

At 7.5 million, US JOLTS job openings were 4.5% above the previous month's 7.19 million. The hiring rate increased from 3.3% to 3.4%, according to the report, whereas the total separations rate held steady at 3.3%. Separately, Factory Orders came in at 1.8% MoM, exceeding August's 0.3% reading.

ADP Employment Change and October's ISM Services PMI are due on Wednesday's US economic calendar.

A day earlier, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) voted 6-3 to increase rates to 4.85%. Governor Michelle Bullock struck a more neutral tone and said the three dissenting members preferred to await further data. While acknowledging uncertainty over how high rates need to go, she offered no forward guidance on their future path.

The latest S&P Global Services PMI reading for October rose to 48.5 from 47.8.

AUD/USD price forecast: Can technical support contain the decline?

A near-term bearish bias persists on the daily chart, where AUD/USD is trading at 0.6964 below the simple moving average (SMA) cluster in the Moving Average Triple around 0.7059. A series of ascending trend lines continues to support the price, with nearby structural demand concentrated around 0.6922. At 41.6, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests momentum is stabilising but remains subdued, rather than signalling a decisive recovery.

The clustered daily SMAs around 0.7059 form the first upside resistance, ahead of the horizontal barrier at 0.7198 that limits the broader advance. Immediate downside support lies in the rising trend-line zone near 0.6922. Below this, further support sits at 0.6897 and 0.6865, followed by medium-term floors at 0.6833, 0.6673 and the earlier break area around 0.6348.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)