Yen holds steady ahead of Tokyo inflation and BoJ rate decision

• Disappointing Amazon and Intel results leave USD/JPY lower, just above 157.50.
• Above-forecast US growth comes as futures already factor in a December Fed rate rise.
• Ahead of Friday's BoJ decision, most analysts anticipate a December rate rise.

Above-forecast US growth has not prevented the Dollar from remaining lower against the Yen following disappointing results from Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC). Around the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision, USD/JPY touched a session peak just above 158.00. Two retreats from that level have since left the pair just above 157.50, towards the lower end of its session range.

At an annual rate of 3.4%, third-quarter US growth exceeded the 3.2% forecast, while core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) inflation came in at 3.1%, as expected. Neither release prompted much movement in USD/JPY. Following Wednesday's 10-2 vote to leave rates unchanged, futures put the probability of a December Fed rate rise at close to 85%. Such a move would take the US rate underpinning USD/JPY's interest-rate differential to 4.00%-4.25%.

With its policy rate at 1.25%, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) opened a two-day meeting on Thursday. Most analysts surveyed by Reuters anticipate a rate of 1.5% in December. September brought quarter-point increases from both the Fed and the BoJ, leaving USD/JPY's interest-rate differential unchanged at 2.50-2.75 points.

Data and central bank events come into focus

Due on Thursday at 23:30 GMT, Tokyo's October Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to show a 2.6% rise in prices excluding fresh food, following 2.7%. Friday then brings the BoJ decision, with no set release time. BoJ Governor Ueda will hold a news conference at 06:30 GMT and speak again on November 6 at 16:00 GMT. These releases and appearances all have implications for when the BoJ next raises rates.

Friday's speakers include San Francisco Fed President Daly at 16:00 GMT, followed by St. Louis Fed President Musalem at 16:30 GMT. Following September's 29K increase, the October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report arrives on November 6 at 13:30 GMT and will inform the Fed's December decision.

USD/JPY trades at its 200-day EMA

The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently sits at USD/JPY's trading level, while the 50-day EMA is slightly above it. From an early-September trough just below 153.00, the pair advanced to just above 159.00 on September 24. That peak has not been exceeded since. A little more than two-fifths of the decline from the late-July high just below 164.00 has now been retraced.

Daily price chart for USD/JPY