Meta's Stock Price Hits A Nearly One-Year High, And The Q3 Earnings Report Is About To Confirm The Gradually Rising Target Price!

The catalyst driving Meta's rise is Muse's astonishing user growth rate. According to JPMorgan's September 22 research report, Muse topped the free app charts in the US and Canada Apple App Store within about two weeks of launch, with single-day downloads even surpassing Meta's core apps like Instagram and WhatsApp. JPMorgan reiterated its overweight rating and $820 target price, believing Muse has the potential to become the most widely used consumer AI application after ChatGPT, and regards agent-to-agent transactions as the most important new monetization path beyond Meta's advertising revenue. This directly boosts market expectations of Meta's valuation revaluation, because the agent-to-agent model means Meta can take commissions from every AI-matched business deal, with the potential market size described by JPMorgan as tens of trillions of dollars.

The Meta Connect 2026 conference held on September 23 further reinforced this narrative. The conference unveiled Meta VR Glasses, the first audio AI glasses Ray-Ban Meta Audio, cameraless AI glasses, and the standalone AI hardware Muse Charm. Meta's AI glasses are the first consumer-grade device to support users in capturing and experiencing video with Dolby Atmos, with pricing and launch timelines yet to be officially disclosed.

However, the bullish narrative faces real financial pressure. Meta's Q2 2026 financial report shows total revenue of $60.8 billion, up 28% year-on-year, and advertising revenue of $59.4 billion, up 27%; but net profit fell to $15.85 billion, down 13.57% year-on-year, with free cash flow plummeting due to a sharp rise in capital expenditure. Meta also raised its median full-year 2026 capital expenditure to $135 billion, with Meta's free cash flow expected to recover significantly in 2028. Currently, META's forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio is about 6.5 times, higher than the industry average, leaving valuation space questionable.

Meanwhile, Muse's business expansion is not without obstacles. Amazon has blocked Muse from accessing its retail platform, and the conflict of interest over AI smart agent entry points has become a major variable before the Connect conference. Some financial services and online travel companies are also under pressure on their stock prices due to accelerated AI smart agent penetration. If more major e-commerce platforms follow suit and restrict Muse access, the timeline for implementing smart agent business models will face significant uncertainty.

Market Insight:

Meta's Q3 2026 earnings report will be the next key milestone. Whether Muse's monthly active users, monetization data, and capital expenditure show marginal improvement will directly test the effectiveness of JPMorgan's $820 target price and determine whether there is still a margin of safety near $744.