USD/JPY Price Forecast: 20-day EMA near continues to act as dynamic support

USD/JPY rises to near 158.25 as the Japanese yen underperforms.
BoJ’s Ueda stresses on anchoring core inflation growth near 2%.
The appeal of the US Dollar slightly improves due to rising French bond yields.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is down against its major currency peers at the start of the week. In the European trade, the US Dollar (USD) is up 0.17% at around 158.25 against the Asia-Pacific currency.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.16%	-0.05%	0.11%	-0.42%	-0.58%	-0.27%	0.12%
EUR	-0.16%		-0.21%	-0.02%	-0.55%	-0.74%	-0.43%	-0.02%
GBP	0.05%	0.21%		0.17%	-0.36%	-0.54%	-0.24%	0.18%
JPY	-0.11%	0.02%	-0.17%		-0.51%	-0.77%	-0.36%	0.05%
CAD	0.42%	0.55%	0.36%	0.51%		-0.14%	0.16%	0.56%
AUD	0.58%	0.74%	0.54%	0.77%	0.14%		0.31%	0.72%
NZD	0.27%	0.43%	0.24%	0.36%	-0.16%	-0.31%		0.41%
CHF	-0.12%	0.02%	-0.18%	-0.05%	-0.56%	-0.72%	-0.41%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

The Japanese currency is under pressure even as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda signals that the underlying inflation is close to the 2% target. However, Ueda stated that “anchoring core inflation near 2% growth more crucial.”

Ueda leans cautiously hawkish as inflation loop firms and JGB guidance stays vague

Ueda scores 7/10 on FXS Speechtracker versus a 7.4/10 historic average, but the emphasis on “underlying inflation near 2%” and a positive wages–prices loop marks a mildly hawkish tilt for the YEN. The focus on demand-led inflation from robust global AI-related capex, tight domestic labor markets, and the warning that long-term rates could rise if the policy rate is not adjusted properly all support a gradual normalization bias that can underpin YEN yields.

At the same time, Ueda stresses that financial conditions remain accommodative, confirms no shift in the fundamental bond taper approach, and refuses to preannounce emergency JGB measures, which tempers the hawkish tone. For FX, the combination of firmer inflation dynamics and data-dependent rate guidance is modestly supportive for the YEN, but the lack of explicit tightening timelines and the pledge to stabilize the JGB market limit immediate upside and keep carry trades only cautiously challenged.

This week, investors will focus on National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be released on Friday.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades slightly higher as French fiscal concerns resurface. As of writing, 10-year French bond yields are up 0.56% to near 4.88% amid civil unrest in France. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.12% higher to near 101.90.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 158.20, holding the short-term Moving Average Exponential (20, close) at 157.87. The pair is inside the Symmetrical Triangle formation, reflecting broader indecisiveness among investors.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at 53.92 sits in neutral-positive territory, hinting that upside momentum is steady rather than stretched, leaving room for the pair to consolidate gains while staying supported by the underlying trend.

On the downside, initial support is reinforced by the 20-period exponential moving average near 157.87. A major action in the pair will likely only after a decisive break of the volatility contraction pattern on either side. The pair could slide to 156.00 if the formation breaks on the downside. Looking up, the pair would aim to revisit the 160.00 hurdle if it manages to break the immediate hurdle near 159.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator

National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)

Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.