Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC consolidates below $85,000 amid rising US Treasury yields, derivatives deleveraging

• Bitcoin consolidates near $83,000 on Wednesday after bulls failed to close above the key $85,000 level earlier this week.
• Rising US Treasury yields and key macroeconomic data releases this week are keeping BTC investors cautious.
• A K33 report highlights that BTC absorbed a major derivatives deleveraging event without a sharp decline, keeping its technical structure relatively healthy.

Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates near $83,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday after bulls failed to close above the key $85,000 level earlier this week. The Crypto King's investors remain cautious amid rising US Treasury yields and several key macroeconomic data releases due this week. Meanwhile, a K33 Research report suggests that BTC's market structure remains relatively healthy, as the market absorbed a major derivatives deleveraging event without a sharp price decline.

Soaring US yields weigh on BTC

Bitcoin bulls are losing momentum, with BTC failing to recover above the $85,000 resistance level at the start of the week and consolidating below this zone so far.

Crypto markets are being held back by the same force weighing on broader risk assets: soaring US Treasury yields. The 5-year yield has risen above 5%, while the 10-year yield is above 5.2%, with both at 19-year highs. Surging yields are pushing investors away from risk assets, which pauses the Crypto King's upside momentum.

In addition, bulls remain reluctant to add bullish positions ahead of key macroeconomic data releases this week. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge – will be published on Wednesday, along with the final US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q2 reading.

Traders will also watch the US ISM Manufacturing PMI due on Thursday and the important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report release on Friday. Apart from this, speeches from influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will be looked upon for more cues about the US central bank's future policy path.  These developments could influence the US Dollar (USD) and, in turn, provide fresh impetus to risky assets such as BTC.

BTC's structure remains relatively healthy

A K33 Research report published on Tuesday highlighted that BTC has absorbed a major derivatives deleveraging event without a sharp price decline, keeping its technical structure relatively healthy.

The report explained that BTC's derivatives markets have undergone an orderly reset, with Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and perpetual Open Interest (OI) falling by 49,028 BTC over the past seven days, the largest weekly decline since October 2025.

The reset appears to have been driven by profit-taking, while spot trading volumes remained below yearly averages despite higher prices, suggesting limited sell-side pressure. 

"With little leverage left to trigger forced liquidations and holders reluctant to sell 33% below all-time high (ATH), we see considerable upside asymmetry," the analyst said.

In addition, past orderly unwinds offer few directional signals, but they have tended to precede periods of low forward volatility as traders remain on the sidelines. Structurally, however, the market remains sound, the report noted.

Aggregate OI is approaching 400K BTC, a level visited only twice in the past two years: between March 9 and April 10, 2025, and between February 15 and March 15, 2026, as shown in the chart below.

Both periods marked consolidation phases that were followed by solid BTC appreciation as traders returned to the market.

"With leverage this low, the risk of an imminent long squeeze is limited, a welcome backdrop for a BTC trend that remains solid above its major moving averages," the report stated.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Momentum indicators show fading upside pressure

Bitcoin price trades at $83,241 on Wednesday after failing to close above key resistance near $85,000 earlier this week. Despite this pullback, BTC holds above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which collectively reinforce a bullish near-term bias.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59 stays in neutral-to-positive territory, hinting at constructive but not overextended momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram slips slightly negative, suggesting waning upside pressure rather than a decisive trend shift.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA near $77,792, followed by the longer-term 200-day EMA at $74,434 and the 100-day EMA at $74,303, before deeper structural floors emerge at the previously referenced horizontal levels of $66,500 and $62,300. 

On the topside, a decisive push higher would face the next notable resistance around the horizontal barrier at $85,000, where fresh selling interest could emerge if momentum fails to re-accelerate.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)