$54.00 Area: XAG/USD holds steady as bears retain control – Silver Price Forecast

• $53.00 has arrested the XAG/USD decline. Sustained trading above $54.00 remains elusive.
• Lower Oil prices are supporting precious metals, although expectations of additional global monetary tightening continue to limit rebounds.
• An 11.5% sell-off over the past two weeks leaves the broader outlook bearish.

$54.00 remains the centre of Silver’s (XAG/USD) narrow trading range on Monday. Investors are staying on the sidelines before Monday’s monetary policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks. A 2% retreat in Oil prices has cushioned precious metals. However, prospects for a series of hawkish holds are restraining attempts to move higher.

For ING analysts, the wider environment still favours the US Dollar. They expect “energy prices firm and expectations growing that the US and Israel will launch another attack on Iran” to help ensure that “central banks stay hawkish.”

ING’s assessment is that “the balance of risks suggests that the dollar can probably hold onto its gains.” The analysts note a qualification: “interest rate spreads have moved a little against the dollar as the recent US tech wobble has pared back Federal Reserve tightening expectations,” but also stress that “energy prices remain at their highs, and the arrival of a third US aircraft carrier group in the Gulf makes further escalation in the Middle East more likely than not,” supporting their argument for continued Dollar strength.

YTD Lows: Silver Consolidates Losses in Technical Analysis

Some technical support has emerged for XAG/USD, yet a meaningful recovery from year-to-date lows remains elusive. On the 4-hour charts, the Relative Strength Index (14) is recovering from oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has only just edged into positive territory. Together, these momentum signals point to a pause in selling rather than a decisive bullish reversal.

Thursday’s lows around $55.40 form the first resistance zone. Beyond that lie the highs of 16, 20 and 21 October near $58.50, followed by the descending channel’s upper boundary just below $60.00.

On the downside, sellers have yet to break through the $53.00 area, where Friday’s trading low coincides with the descending channel’s lower boundary. A move below would bring the psychological $50.00 level into focus, followed by the late November 2025 low around $48.70 as the next bearish target.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)