$80,000 Area: Bitcoin Price Forecast as BTC Stalls Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Weaker Risk Appetite

• $80,500 is Bitcoin's approximate trading level on Monday. The cryptocurrency has corrected for three consecutive weeks.
• $301 million in net inflows returned to US-listed spot ETFs last week, ending two consecutive weeks of outflows.
• Oil prices remain under upward pressure from escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, fuelling inflation worries and curbing appetite for risk.

$80,500 is Bitcoin's (BTC) approximate price at the time of writing on Monday. The cryptocurrency has now extended its correction to three consecutive weeks. Institutional demand nevertheless showed signs of recovery: spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted $301.2 million in net inflows last week, ending a two-week run of outflows despite the weaker price.

Pressure on the Crypto King persists, however. Higher crude oil prices and intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are sustaining inflation concerns and restraining risk appetite.

$301.2 million in inflows signals tentative institutional return

Last week's price retreat did not prevent tentative signs of improving institutional demand. CoinGlass data showed $301.2 million in net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, reversing two weeks of outflows. Demand improved, but BTC still lost over 2% last week, completing three consecutive weeks of correction since early October. Continued and stronger inflows through this week could help soften the ongoing price decline.

Higher oil prices and geopolitical risks pressure BTC

$103.28 per barrel was the level reached by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on Friday as crude oil climbed to its highest since 15 September. Attacks in Saudi Arabia and tensions involving Iran have raised supply concerns. 

On Sunday, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis pledged to continue attacks on Saudi Arabia's King Khalid Airport in Riyadh, marking the latest escalation. 

With US-Iran talks stalled, the geopolitical risk premium remains high and is putting additional upward pressure on oil. Sustained increases in energy costs could intensify inflation worries, weaken risk appetite and limit BTC's potential gains.

2.39% weekly decline: Bitcoin technical outlook weakens

Around $80,400 is where the Crypto King trades on Monday. A 2.39% correction last week extended its losing streak to three weeks since early October.

A further correction could take BTC towards $78,661, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199. That level broadly aligns with the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) at $75,817.

On the weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 54 and heading down towards the neutral 50 mark, signalling a cooling in bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is still positive, but its bars are shrinking. The broader upward momentum therefore remains intact, although nearby resistance and the continuing pullback are eroding its strength.

A recovery, by contrast, could carry BTC towards $87,823, the 50% retracement level, before the 100-week SMA at $89,386.

A neutral consolidation pattern is evident on BTC's daily chart. The price remains above the 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), at $77,691 and $76,306 respectively, while the 50-day EMA at $80,816 continues to cap gains. Trading between these trend indicators points to a broadly bullish backdrop, offset by short-term hesitation. Momentum readings are softer: the daily RSI stands at 43, while the MACD remains below zero, suggesting subdued bullish momentum.

The first upside barrier is the 50-day EMA at $80,816. Beyond it, the horizontal level around $85,000 presents stronger resistance, where earlier selling pressure could return.

Initial downside support lies at the 100-day EMA of $77,691, followed by the deeper structural floor near $76,306 at the 200-day EMA. A daily close beneath these underlying averages would likely shift the short-term bias towards a more bearish setup.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)