$77,000 to $80,000: Bitcoin remains range-bound as spot demand stays subdued

• $81,300 marks resistance for Bitcoin, according to Bitfinex. Passive buying in the $77,000-$80,000 support zone leaves the recovery exposed to fresh selling.
• 12.1% growth lifted Bitcoin futures open interest to 694,728 BTC. Derivatives exposure expanded even as the price fell 5.3%.
• $80,000 must be reclaimed for Bitcoin’s outlook to improve, Wintermute warned, with support from spot demand and ETF inflows.

$77,000 to $80,000 could contain Bitcoin (BTC) in the near term. Crypto exchange Bitfinex expects weak spot demand to leave advances towards $81,300 vulnerable to selling pressure.

$81K resistance challenges Bitcoin recovery

Around 1.05 million BTC has been acquired by investors in the $77,000 to $80,000 support zone, compared with 738,000 BTC on October 28. In Tuesday’s Bitfinex Alpha report, the exchange’s analysts said this zone continues to constrain Bitcoin’s immediate price outlook. Buying within the range appears predominantly passive, with resting bids absorbing sales rather than buyers actively pursuing the market. That leaves Bitcoin exposed to another wave of selling.

Bitfinex described the activity: “The current buying we are seeing inside the $77-80,000 band is passive, not aggressive,”

Investors seeking to close positions could cap further upside at $81,300, the next major resistance level.

Continued volatility is also signalled by the options market. Implied price moves indicate a possible $74,400 to $81,750 trading range through the November 6 expiry.

Capital has nevertheless kept flowing into Bitcoin derivatives despite the leading cryptocurrency’s recent price weakness.

By October 31, total futures open interest had reached 694,728 BTC, a 12.1% increase from the October 12 low, while Bitcoin’s price declined 5.3%. Positive funding rates persisted. During the October 30 sell-off, annualised rates hit 17% on some major perpetual futures exchanges. Bitfinex said this indicated that leveraged traders were still positioning for a rebound as prices weakened.

Spot demand, by contrast, has lagged. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lost $643.2 million on October 30, marking their biggest daily outflow since June 25.

After combined inflows of $6.36 billion over July, August and September, those withdrawals left October as the first month with net ETF outflows since June.

Without sustained, aggressive spot buying, Bitcoin’s recovery risks remaining at a standstill, Bitfinex cautioned.

$80K recovery key to Bitcoin’s near-term outlook

$80,000 remains a critical threshold for Bitcoin. Reclaiming and holding that level is a key requirement for a better near-term outlook, trading firm Wintermute said in its Tuesday report.

With little evidence that fresh capital is arriving through spot markets to support the recent rebound, the firm retained its cautious stance.

Wintermute set out its condition for a change in view: "We would stop being short-term cautious if Bitcoin reclaims $80K and holds it with the bid coming from spot and ETF flow,"

The next significant support lies at Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average, near $76,800, according to the firm. A lasting break beneath that level would heighten downside risks.

Pressure on the market has persisted following the $6.3 billion Binance hack late Thursday, Wintermute added. Roughly $1.5 billion in liquidations followed the incident, with leveraged long positions accounting for around 85%.

The initial buying of the dip came largely through perpetual futures, not spot markets, Wintermute said. As a result, the rebound lacked sufficient new spot demand.

The firm also observed: “Bitcoin has lost [the] $80K level. And while not for the macro reasons we flagged, the market still feels heavy post the $1.5b liquidation on the back of Binance last week,”

At the time of writing, BTC stands at $77,660, a 0.2% gain over the past 24 hours.