$1.25 support: Ripple price forecast as XRP holds on and Binance reserves reach five-year low

• $1.25 is the focus for XRP bulls. They are positioning for a near-term rebound as consolidation continues across the wider crypto market.
• Following the reopening of withdrawals, Binance's XRP holdings have dropped steeply to their lowest since 2021.
• Negative MACD readings and an RSI in bearish territory leave XRP's technical outlook tilted to the downside.

$1.25 is the level above which Ripple (XRP) appears to be building recovery momentum. The remittance token is rangebound on Tuesday, with psychological support at $1.20 and structural resistance around $1.32. Traders are weighing greater risk exposure following last week's historic $6.3 billion Binance hack.

Binance's pledge to cover losses and protect users has helped keep the exchange's situation largely contained. Concerns about the short- and medium-term outlook nevertheless persist among investors across the wider crypto market.

With XRP nearly 19% lower over the past month and 24% below its September peak around $1.67, the support zone extending towards $1.20 is critical to restoring a sustained uptrend. Failure to hold that area could deepen the sell-off towards the year-to-date low near $0.98.

In an emailed analysis report, Crypto Finance said: “The Binance hack continues to dominate the discussion. All things considered, the fact that the situation remains contained is remarkable given the reported scale of the incident,” adding, “It is arguably the type of event that very few parties could have absorbed.”

2021 lows revisited: Binance XRP reserves slide

After Binance reopened withdrawals, XRP balances on the exchange declined sharply to levels last seen in 2021. The sizeable outflows followed a withdrawal suspension imposed to contain the security breach.

By Monday, Binance held roughly 2.38 billion XRP in reserves, down from 2.47 billion XRP last Friday, according to the data. Over three days, that represents a reduction of approximately 92.36 million XRP, equivalent to roughly 3.74% of the total supply.

Even after the decline, substantial XRP reserves remain on Binance. This suggests reopening withdrawals did not prompt large-scale outflows.

Writing in CryptoQuants’ Insights segment, Arab Chain said: “The most notable aspect of this data is that XRP reserves have reached levels not seen on the exchange since 2021, reflecting a continued reduction in the amount of XRP held on Binance,”

A continuation of this trend could leave less XRP available to sell on Binance. Provided demand holds steady, that could ease selling pressure.

Crypto Finance added: “We believe the current weakness in crypto is more reflective of the broader macro environment than of the hack itself, although the latter is clearly adding pressure,”

$1.25 in focus: XRP bulls defend support as technical bias stays bearish

At $1.25, XRP remains beneath every major Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the active SuperTrend line, maintaining a bearish near-term bias. The descending resistance trendline near $1.29 also sits above the price, indicating that rebounds continue to meet rejection below the previous structural supply zone. Meanwhile, a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading around 38 points to subdued momentum, rather than outright oversold conditions.

Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is only slightly negative, it indicates continued downside pressure. Strong impulsive follow-through remains absent for now.

The descending trendline near $1.29 provides the first resistance. Beyond it, the 100-day EMA at $1.32 and the 50-day EMA at $1.34 create a tightly packed overhead barrier. Should a corrective rebound extend further, stronger resistance is likely at the 200-period EMA of $1.36 and the SuperTrend line around $1.39. The bearish bias is expected to hold while XRP remains below this layered resistance zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)