$80K holds for BTC bulls: Bitcoin and Gold forecast as XAU defends $4,000 ahead of Fed

• $80,000 remains below Bitcoin’s price. Momentum is limited as traders await the Fed’s interest rate announcement.
• $4,000 remains below Gold’s price, although macroeconomic concerns leave sellers largely in command.
• The Fed’s rate announcement and Chair Warsh’s press briefing dominate market attention.

$80,000 is the level in focus for Bitcoin (BTC). The cryptocurrency edges down near that mark on Wednesday, while Gold (XAU/USD) stays above $4,000. With the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate announcement due later in the day, both assets mirror the wider risk-off mood.

Following the monetary policy decision, near-term support levels are likely to guide price direction. Gold is moving towards $4,100, while Bitcoin stands above the key psychological supply level of $82,000.

For XAU/USD, a daily close under $4,000 could strengthen sellers’ control. For BTC, a prolonged correction below $80,000 could lead to a deeper sell-off, with macroeconomic concerns and exhausted buying interest among the contributing factors.

91% hold probability: Fed decision pressures sentiment

A 91% probability of unchanged rates is priced into markets. This points to broad agreement that the central bank will retain its 3.75-4.00% range, as traders concentrate on the forthcoming Fed interest rate announcement.

In its weekly 'Ahead of the Curve' report, K33 Research said: “Tomorrow’s FOMC is priced at 89% for no change, but markets expect hikes by year end and more next year. The midterms add to the noise and are likely contributing to the heavy chop in BTC lately,”

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference after the meeting will also be scrutinised for indications of the regulator’s policy direction. Economists, notably, are placing greater odds on a rate increase in December. Such a move could weigh on risk assets.

In emailed commentary, CoinRoutes Co-founder and CEO Ian Weisberger said, “This is a nervy week for crypto,” adding, “Traders face a Fed rate decision, results from the biggest tech companies in the world, and around $12 billion worth of Bitcoin bets expiring on Friday. Then the US midterms land next Tuesday.”

At 51 on Wednesday, the crypto Fear & Greed Index places appetite for digital assets in Neutral territory despite macroeconomic worries. That is only a slight rise from the previous day’s 48. The improvement is modest against last week’s Greed reading of 63 and last month’s 74.

$80,805 support in focus: Bitcoin technical analysis

At $80,812, Bitcoin sits only slightly above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $80,805. Overhead, the middle line of the 20-day Bollinger Bands at $81,908 continues to cap the price. A decisive recovery of that mid-band remains absent, while the rising short-term EMA offers only marginal support. The overall bias therefore stays neutral-to-bearish.

Caution is also evident in momentum readings. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 45, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stays below zero. Both suggest that attempts to advance could still encounter selling pressure.

Near $81,907, the Bollinger middle line provides the first resistance. A daily close above it would bring the upper band around $84,072 into view as the next upside target. Immediate support, by contrast, comes from the 50-day EMA at $80,805. A sustained breach would expose the lower Bollinger Band near $79,744, where buyers would be expected to regroup to avert a more pronounced correction.

$4,005 support in focus: Gold technical analysis

At $4,050, Gold retains a bearish short-term bias. Spot prices remain beneath a concentrated resistance zone formed by the 50-day EMA at $4,201 and the Bollinger middle line near $4,120. The Parabolic SAR, at $4,108, is also above the price, underscoring the layers of resistance containing the market. Meanwhile, a negative MACD reading and an RSI just below 40 indicate that downward momentum persists.

The lower Bollinger Band, around $4,005, offers the first support. A decisive break below it would leave scope for a deeper correction towards lower psychological levels. To recover, buyers must first regain the Parabolic SAR at $4,108 and then the Bollinger mid-line at $4,120. The current bearish pressure would only begin to ease with a daily close above the 50-day EMA at $4,203, followed by the upper Bollinger Band near $4,234. That sequence would also signal the possibility of a more lasting bullish reversal.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)