0.6950 gives way in AUD/USD as NASDAQ sell-off puts key 0.6900 support at risk

• 0.6931 marks AUD/USD’s latest level, down over 1% after a breach of 0.6950.
• A fall of over 5.52% in the Nasdaq 100 sparks broad risk aversion.
• Ahead of NFP, robust US jobs figures and expectations of an RBA pause weigh on the Aussie.

AUD/USD stands at 0.6931. The pair retreated from a peak of 0.7024 as the Australian Dollar lost over 1% on Thursday. Deteriorating risk appetite and a sell-off in US technology shares weighed on the currency. Meanwhile, strong US employment figures supported the US Dollar before Friday’s key Nonfarm Payrolls report.

0.6900-0.7030 range low nears for AUD/USD amid sharp tech sell-off and hawkish Fed comments

A decline of over 5.52% in the NASDAQ 100 during the day highlighted the risk-off mood as US equities slumped in the session. A CNBC headline described the index as falling “into correction territory”. Concerns included growing speculation that Democrats controlling the US Congress may seek AI regulation, alongside a possible slowdown in data centres.

US economic releases remained firm. For the week ending 31 October, Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 189K, against a forecast of 196K. October’s Challenger Job Cuts fell to 43.994K from 43,281, representing a 2% increase. Nevertheless, companies intend to recruit over 444,692 workers in October, 57% above the 2025 figure.

The Greenback also found support in hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.  A gradual approach to interest rate increases was favoured by Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack, who stressed that the Fed has further work to do. Richmond Fed Thomas Barkin subsequently echoed Hammack’s preference for gradual action, saying “broad-based” inflation was still too high.

Against this backdrop, a decisive AUD/USD break below 0.7000 accelerated losses through 0.6950. The pair remains in consolidation despite the decline. Its position near the lower end of the 0.6900-0.7030 range, however, raises the likelihood of further bearish movement.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders now assign a 66% probability to a 25-basis-point increase at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, compared with 82% a day earlier. The shift reflects a continued reduction in hawkish bets.

Friday’s Australian economic calendar is empty. Signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), however, have prompted investors to remove further rate increases from their pricing. Prime Terminal reported that investors now anticipate unchanged RBA rates at least until the monetary policy meeting on 22 June 2027.

Next on the US calendar are October’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, the Unemployment Rate and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index.

0.6928 AUD/USD: Near-term bearish technical forecast

At 0.6928 on the daily chart, AUD/USD retains a bearish near-term bias. Spot remains beneath a cluster of simple moving averages (SMA), with the latest composite reading near 0.7050. Rising trend-line projections also sit above the price, forming resistance at roughly 0.7120 to 0.7470. These barriers continue to constrain the market despite a rebound from oversold conditions earlier in the month. At around 39, the 14-period Relative Strength Index signals weak but stabilising downside momentum. Sellers therefore retain control, although selling pressure has eased.

The triple SMA cluster near 0.7050 provides the first upside resistance. Beyond it lie a rising trend line around 0.7123 and a stronger horizontal barrier at 0.7198. Easing the prevailing bearish structure would require a daily close above these barriers. Immediate downside support sits around 0.6923 at a shorter-term ascending trend line. Should heavy selling return, a deeper structural floor lies near the earlier downtrend reference around 0.6347.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)