Why is XRP edging lower despite Ripple securing final OCC approval for National Trust Bank?

• XRP remains rangebound near $1.30 as macroeconomic uncertainty hangs over the wider crypto market.
• With final US OCC approval secured for its National Trust Bank, Ripple aims to oversee RLUSD reserves and offer crypto custody services.
• A weak technical structure continues to restrict XRP, which is moving in line with the market near $1.30.

Technical resistance continues to limit Ripple (XRP), leaving the token trading at $1.30 on Tuesday. Weeks of sustained pressure and risk-averse sentiment have left it roughly 16% below October’s high of $1.56 and 21% below September’s peak of $1.66.

Will macro pressures persist ahead of the Fed decision?

Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision remains the main focus for markets. Rates are widely expected to stay within the 3.75-4.00% range, but high oil and energy prices, alongside persistent inflation, continue to fuel broader macroeconomic concerns.

Against a resilient economic backdrop, inflation in the United States (US) remains above the long-term 2% target that the regulator is committed to meeting. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) leaving rates unchanged in October stands at 90%, with a hike to follow in December. As part of a broader outlook for bringing inflation lower, Crypto Finance anticipates two additional rate increases by the end of 2027.

In an analysis report sent by email, Crypto Finance said: “Wednesday's Fed meeting is the key macro event. We expect rates to remain unchanged, so the focus will be on the dot plot and any shift in the forward path. Markets currently price a 90% probability of a skip, followed by a December hike and two further hikes by year-end 2027, taking the target range to 4.50–4.75%,”

What does final OCC approval mean for Ripple National Trust Bank?

Following conditional approval in December, the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has now given Ripple National Trust Bank its final clearance. This places the blockchain company under federal supervision for the management of RLUSD stablecoin reserves. The same licence will also allow Ripple to offer enterprise-grade crypto custody services.

Writing on X, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said: “We’ve always said crypto and banks work better together, this is what that looks like. Real innovation, real accountability, federal oversight.”

Technical analysis: Can XRP defend its key support?

Bulls are seeking to protect the short-term psychological support at $1.30, where XRP is trading, before attempting another recovery. Rangebound price action has not removed the near-term bearish bias, as the token remains below its key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

Overhead resistance comes from the 100-day EMA at $1.33, the 50-day EMA at $1.36 and the 200-day EMA at $1.37. These levels suggest that the pair is still being held within a broader corrective phase, while the SuperTrend line at $1.45 points to continued selling pressure on rallies.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), near 41, signals muted momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is narrowing marginally below zero, suggesting that downside pressure remains weak but is stabilising.

For bulls to move the bias away from bearish, they would need to regain a closely grouped set of technical resistance levels. The first is the 100-day EMA near $1.33, followed by the 50-day EMA at $1.36 and the 200-day EMA around $1.37.

Beyond this cluster, the SuperTrend line at $1.45 provides a higher resistance zone, ahead of the longer-term bearish trend structure at $1.61 and $1.70. The daily chart offers no clear technical support below $1.30, meaning a decline would leave XRP looking for fresh buying demand. Continued trading below the EMA cluster favours rangebound to lower prices over the short term.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)