WTI Price Forecast: Correction continues below $100

Oil slips below $100 as concerns over renewed US attacks on Iran ease.
A diplomatic solution is President Trump’s preference, according to US Secretary of State Rubio.
Talks with the US via Qatari mediators remain underway, Iran indicates.

Selling pressure in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX has pushed prices down 2.25% to around $99.80 during Monday’s European session. The decline extends a correction that began after oil failed to build on its rally beyond $104.03, the five-month high reached on Friday.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Easing concerns over prolonged risks to energy supplies are weighing on WTI. This follows indications from the United States (US) that it would prioritise a diplomatic settlement with Iran rather than resume military action.

President Donald Trump favours a diplomatic solution, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said over the weekend, adding that Washington had taken no decision to launch fresh strikes on Tehran. Nevertheless, Rubio left the possibility of military action open by saying that the US retains the capabilities to accomplish whatever military objective Trump chooses to pursue.

Energy supply concerns also eased after Iran indicated that discussions with Qatari mediators were continuing on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, provided the US cooperates, Al Jazeera reported.

The fall in oil prices, meanwhile, suggests that financial markets are disregarding claims by US media personality and political commentator Tucker Carlso. According to The Times of India (ToI), he alleged that Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu is urging US President Donald Trump to carry out a nuclear strike on Iran and that Washington could decide on using nuclear weapons within days.

WTI Technical Analysis: Can Oil Regain Its Upward Momentum?

A mildly bearish near-term bias persists on the daily chart, with WTI US Oil below $100 and just beneath its 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $100.09. That average is restricting the upside despite the sharp advance from the mid-$80s.

Trading below the short-term EMA points to fading traction among buyers. However, the Relative Strength Index (14), at around 58, remains in positive territory, signalling constructive momentum that has not yet produced a decisive bullish move through immediate resistance.

For prices to advance, the key obstacle is the five-month high of $104.03. If oil weakens, the October 20 low of $95.05 could provide an important support level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI Oil: Key Questions Answered

What Distinguishes WTI Oil?

Traded in international markets, WTI Oil is a variety of Crude Oil. Its name stands for West Texas Intermediate, which ranks alongside Brent and Dubai Crude as one of the three major types. The descriptions “light” and “sweet” refer respectively to its relatively low gravity and sulphur content. These qualities make it a high-quality Oil that is easy to refine. Sourced in the United States, WTI is distributed through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It serves as an Oil market benchmark, with its price regularly cited by the media.

What Shapes WTI Oil Prices?

Supply and demand determine WTI Oil prices, as they do for other assets. Stronger global growth can boost demand, while weaker growth can have the reverse effect. Supply disruptions arising from political instability, wars or sanctions can also affect prices. Another major influence is the policy adopted by OPEC, a grouping of leading Oil-producing countries. Because Oil is traded predominantly in US Dollars, the currency’s value also matters: a weaker US Dollar can make WTI Crude Oil more affordable, while a stronger Dollar can do the opposite.

Why Do Inventory Reports Affect WTI Oil Prices?

WTI Oil prices respond to the weekly inventory reports issued by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA), as changes in stocks reveal shifts in supply and demand. A decline in inventories can signal stronger demand and lift Oil prices; a rise can point to greater supply and put prices under pressure. The API releases its report every Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two sets of figures tend to be similar, differing by no more than 1% of each other 75% of the time. As the EIA is a government agency, its data is regarded as more reliable.

How Do OPEC Decisions Affect WTI Oil Prices?

Production quotas agreed by OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) often influence WTI Oil prices. The group comprises 12 Oil-producing nations that jointly set quotas for members at meetings held twice a year. A cut in quotas can restrict supply and lift Oil prices, whereas higher production has the reverse effect. The broader OPEC+ grouping adds ten non-OPEC members, with Russia the most notable among them.