WTI Price Forecast: Middle East jitters keep bulls in charge above $95.00 support

Buying interest returns to WTI after sharp price swings in both directions the previous day.
Prices draw support from a persistent geopolitical risk premium amid uncertainty in the Middle East.
Fresh bullish positions in the commodity call for caution given the technical picture.

Fresh buying lifts West Texas Intermediate (WTI) during Wednesday’s Asian session, but gains struggle to extend beyond $99.00 as traders watch for further developments in the Middle East crisis. The benchmark US crude oil price remains below the high reached the previous day, its strongest level since 16 September.

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Crude prices continue to draw support from the geopolitical risk premium as doubts persist over progress towards an agreement. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that a diplomat involved in US-Iran negotiations had challenged reports suggesting a deal was close. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also told Pakistan’s Army Chief, Asim Munir, that the US could not gain Iran’s trust unless it implemented previously stated conditions. These included ending all hostilities and unfreezing the country’s assets.

Concerns about disruptions to crude supplies intensified after Iran’s First Vice President said the country had no option but to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Those concerns are helping oil extend its overnight recovery from the weekly low. Gains remain limited, however, by an unconfirmed Tuesday report that Qatar and Pakistan had presented the US and Iran with a compromise proposal meeting both sides’ demands. Bullish traders therefore have reason to remain cautious.

Holding above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart leaves the commodity’s near-term outlook tilted upwards. The overnight rebound also confirmed strong support around $95.00, a former resistance level, reinforcing the broader uptrend. Momentum has nevertheless moderated: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has moved further below both zero and its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 59.76, has retreated from its earlier overbought zone.

Consolidation, rather than a clear reversal, appears to be the message from these technical signals. Any sizeable decline could thus continue to attract solid support around the psychological $95.00 level. Further down, the 100-period SMA near $92.26 provides structural support. Within the prevailing bullish trend, buyers would be expected to regain control there if a deeper pullback develops.

On the upside, renewed buying momentum could carry oil towards the psychological $100.00 level, followed by the overnight swing high near the round figure of 101.00. That high could prove a key resistance point. A break above it would be viewed as a fresh bullish trigger, paving the way for the uptrend seen over roughly the past two weeks to extend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

What Does WTI’s 4-hour Chart Show?

WTI Oil: Key Questions Answered

What makes WTI Oil a global benchmark?

Among the crude oils traded internationally, WTI, short for West Texas Intermediate, is one of three major varieties alongside Brent and Dubai Crude. Its relatively low gravity gives it the description “light”, while its low sulphur content earns it the description “sweet”. Regarded as a high-quality oil, WTI is straightforward to refine. It originates in the United States and reaches the market through the Cushing distribution hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. WTI serves as an oil-market benchmark, with its price regularly cited by the media.

Which forces shape WTI Oil prices?

Supply and demand underpin WTI Oil prices, as they do prices of other assets. Stronger global growth can lift demand, whereas weaker growth can have the reverse effect. On the supply side, political instability, wars and sanctions can cause disruptions and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, the grouping of major oil-producing countries, are another important influence. WTI Crude Oil prices also respond to the US Dollar’s value because oil is mainly traded in US Dollars. A weaker US Dollar can therefore make oil more affordable, while a stronger currency can have the opposite effect.

Why do inventory figures move WTI Oil prices?

WTI Oil prices are influenced by weekly inventory releases from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA), as stock changes signal shifts in supply and demand. Falling inventories can point to stronger demand and lift oil prices; rising stocks can indicate greater supply and weigh on prices. The API publishes its report every Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two sets of figures are generally close, coming within 1% of one another 75% of the time. As the EIA is a government agency, its data is regarded as more reliable.

Why do OPEC decisions matter for WTI Oil prices?

Production quotas agreed by OPEC often influence WTI Oil prices. Short for Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC comprises 12 oil-producing nations that jointly set member countries’ quotas at meetings held twice a year. A reduction in those quotas can constrain supply and lift oil prices, while an increase in production has the reverse effect. The wider OPEC+ grouping brings in ten additional non-OPEC members, with Russia the most notable among them.