WTI Price Forecast: Can gains extend after a move above mid-$98.00s as the bullish setup remains supportive?

Buying interest returns to WTI after sharp swings in both directions over the past two days.
Bulls retain support as lingering geopolitical uncertainty underpins the commodity.
Further advances towards $100.00 remain supported by a favourable technical outlook.

Fresh buying lifts West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the US Crude Oil benchmark – towards $98.70 in Thursday’s Asian session. The advance keeps the commodity close to the high reached earlier this week, its strongest level since 15 September.

Support for crude continues to come from fears that a further escalation in Middle East tensions could disrupt energy supplies. In the latest incident, a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field in the Eastern Province killed two expatriates and injured two others.

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Plans for a brief but intensive military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections have been prepared by the US and Israel, The New York Times reported. Separately, while stressing that Iran is prepared to defend itself, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was willing to give diplomacy with the US another chance.

The technical picture remains supportive, with crude prices trading comfortably above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Tuesday’s rebound from around $95.00, a former resistance level that now acts as support, also indicates that the short-term uptrend is intact. This is despite the recent volatility triggered by conflicting signals on US-Iran peace talks.

Momentum, however, appears measured rather than strong: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is still in negative territory, while a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of around 57 signals a neutral-to-positive bias. Even so, the generally favourable technical structure indicates that $95.00 could provide support if prices correct.

Around $92.76, the 100-period SMA marks the structural floor. Within the prevailing bullish backdrop, buyers would be expected to regain control there should a deeper pullback occur. A breach of this crucial support would undermine the bullish structure; staying above it, by contrast, leaves room for a fresh attempt towards the recent psychological $100 region and beyond.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

What Does WTI’s 4-Hour Chart Indicate?

WTI Oil: Key Questions Answered

What defines WTI Oil?

Among the crude oil varieties traded internationally, WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate. Alongside Brent and Dubai Crude, it is one of the three main types. Its relatively low gravity earns it the description “light”, while its low sulphur content accounts for the term “sweet”. Regarded as high-quality oil, WTI is easy to refine. Production is based in the United States, with distribution through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. WTI serves as an oil market benchmark, and its price is regularly cited by the media.

What determines WTI Oil prices?

Supply and demand chiefly determine WTI Oil prices, as they do for other assets. Stronger global growth can lift demand, whereas weaker growth can have the reverse effect. On the supply side, wars, political instability and sanctions may cause disruptions that affect prices. Decisions taken by OPEC, the grouping of major oil-producing countries, are another important price driver. The US Dollar’s value also matters because oil is traded predominantly in US Dollars. A weaker dollar can therefore make oil more affordable, while a stronger dollar can do the opposite.

Why do inventory figures affect WTI Oil prices?

WTI Oil prices respond to the weekly inventory reports released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA), as stock changes reflect shifts in supply and demand. A fall in inventories may signal stronger demand and lift oil prices. Conversely, rising inventories may point to greater supply and weigh on prices. The API releases its report each Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two sets of figures are generally similar: 75% of the time, they are within 1% of each other. As the EIA is a government agency, its data is regarded as more reliable.

How do OPEC’s decisions affect WTI Oil prices?

WTI Oil prices are often influenced by the production quotas agreed by OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). Its 12 oil-producing member nations jointly set these quotas at meetings held twice a year. Cutting quotas can restrict supply and push oil prices higher; increasing production has the reverse effect. The wider OPEC+ grouping includes ten additional non-OPEC members, with Russia the most prominent among them.