USD/JPY Price Forecast: Can a bullish pin bar break through the 200-day SMA barrier?

Below resistance at the 200-day SMA, USD/JPY shows a possible bullish pin bar.
Buying momentum weakens as the RSI heads lower despite remaining in bullish territory.
Above 159.00, 159.16 comes into focus; a break below 157.39 puts 156.08 at risk.

Selling pressure on USD/JPY has eased from earlier levels, although the pair remains down 0.20% following the US midterm election results. A tilted bullish ‘pin bar’ appears to be taking shape, but consolidation continues between the 50- and 200-day SMAs at 157.39 and 158.62, respectively. The pair is trading at 158.41 at the time of writing.

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USD/JPY Price Forecast: Can Buyers Overcome the Bearish Structure?

With no clear directional bias, USD/JPY continues to trade on a subdued note. Lower highs and lower lows still define the market structure. A recovery above 159.00, however, could bring the 100-day SMA at 159.16 into play, as buyers look for a test of 160.00.

Momentum offers little support for such a move: while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish, it is pointing lower. Nevertheless, should USD/JPY rise above 160.00, a subsequent break above the 2 September high of 160.39 could allow buyers to invalidate the bearish market structure.

For the downtrend to extend, sellers would first need to push USD/JPY below 158.00 and then break through the 50-day SMA at 157.39. Losing that moving average would put 157.00 in focus, followed by the 23 October low of the day (LOD) at 156.08 as the next level in sellers’ sights.

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart

How Is the Japanese Yen Performing Today?

The Japanese Yen recorded its strongest performance against the US Dollar today. The table below sets out the Japanese Yen’s (JPY) percentage moves against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.37%	-0.44%	-0.21%	-0.27%	-0.54%	-0.22%	-0.52%
EUR	0.37%		-0.06%	0.20%	0.13%	-0.16%	0.20%	-0.15%
GBP	0.44%	0.06%		0.23%	0.17%	-0.10%	0.23%	-0.09%
JPY	0.21%	-0.20%	-0.23%		-0.07%	-0.34%	-0.03%	-0.33%
CAD	0.27%	-0.13%	-0.17%	0.07%		-0.27%	0.04%	-0.26%
AUD	0.54%	0.16%	0.10%	0.34%	0.27%		0.32%	0.02%
NZD	0.22%	-0.20%	-0.23%	0.03%	-0.04%	-0.32%		-0.29%
CHF	0.52%	0.15%	0.09%	0.33%	0.26%	-0.02%	0.29%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. To read JPY (base)/USD (quote), for instance, choose the Japanese Yen on the left and follow its row across to the US Dollar; the intersecting cell gives the percentage change for that pair.