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US Midterm Elections: US Dollar under pressure as Democrats secure early victories
Control of Congress for the final two years of US President Donald Trump’s term was at stake as Americans cast their votes in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
Democrats have secured 124 seats and Republicans 77 in the US House of Representatives, according to live data from the Decision Desk HQ. Results have been called for 201 of the chamber’s 435 seats.
Tuesday brought a significant win for Democrats as they took a Republican-held Senate seat in North Carolina. The party also put in unexpectedly strong performances in several Republican-leaning House districts in Florida.
Media projections showed former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper winning comfortably in North Carolina against Republican candidate Michael Whatley, who had Donald Trump’s endorsement. The victory handed Democrats a Senate seat previously held by Republicans.
In Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff defeated Trump-backed challenger Mike Collins to win a second term in the US Senate. For Democrats seeking to retake the Senate, Georgia continues to be a crucial battleground.
Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said: "Given the Democrats are favoured right now, our expectation is that they will take control of both the House and the Senate," adding: “If that pans out, the US dollar could sell off further from here, because a Democratic sweep would limit government spending over Trump's term,”
How are markets reacting?
Selling pressure is weighing on the US Dollar Index (DXY) ahead of the US midterm election results. As of this report, the DXY stands at 101.32, down 0.52% on the day. US Treasury yields also declined across the curve: the 2-year Treasury yield fell five basis points (bps) to 4.566%, while the benchmark 10-year yield dropped six bps to 4.90%.
How Is the US Dollar Trading Today?
The US Dollar recorded its weakest performance against the Swiss Franc today. The table below sets out the US Dollar’s (USD) percentage moves against the major currencies listed.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.53% | -0.43% | -0.72% | -0.33% | -0.05% | 0.10% | -0.86% | |
| EUR | 0.53% | 0.11% | -0.20% | 0.19% | 0.47% | 0.63% | -0.31% | |
| GBP | 0.43% | -0.11% | -0.30% | 0.11% | 0.38% | 0.52% | -0.44% | |
| JPY | 0.72% | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.68% | 0.82% | -0.14% | |
| CAD | 0.33% | -0.19% | -0.11% | -0.40% | 0.27% | 0.42% | -0.54% | |
| AUD | 0.05% | -0.47% | -0.38% | -0.68% | -0.27% | 0.15% | -0.80% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | -0.63% | -0.52% | -0.82% | -0.42% | -0.15% | -0.95% | |
| CHF | 0.86% | 0.31% | 0.44% | 0.14% | 0.54% | 0.80% | 0.95% |
To read the heat map of percentage movements between major currencies, select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, starting with the US Dollar on the left and following that row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.
US midterm elections: key questions answered
Held at the midpoint of a president’s four-year term, the US midterms are federal elections in which voters elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and roughly one-third of the Senate. Many states also elect governors and other state and local officials.
Tuesday, 3 November 2026, is Election Day, in line with federal law requiring the vote to be held on the Tuesday following November’s first Monday. Many states already have early voting and postal voting under way.
Control of both chambers of Congress during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term will be determined by these elections. The party holding a majority decides the legislative agenda and selects committee leaders. In the Senate, it also oversees the confirmation of judges and senior officials.
No. Presidential elections take place every four years, with the next scheduled for November 2028. Often viewed as a verdict on the incumbent president’s party, midterms have historically tended to cost that party seats in the House.
A limited, temporary move in the US Dollar, rather than a sustained trend, is what most analysts anticipate. Markets have partly factored in a divided Congress, which is widely considered the base case. The response in Treasury yields could be more pronounced. Results that increase expectations of fiscal stimulus generally support both yields and the US Dollar; conversely, a legislative impasse restricting fresh spending can weigh on both. Disputes over funding or the debt ceiling can also provide a brief safe-haven boost to the Dollar. Over six to twelve months, however, economic growth and Federal Reserve policy carry more weight than the election outcome.
Historically, US equities have tended to struggle ahead of midterms and strengthen afterwards. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has stood higher 12 months after every midterm vote: 19 out of 19 occasions, with gains averaging about 15%. Analysts attribute this pattern to the easing of uncertainty after results become clear. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and some strategists caution that elevated valuations in 2026 could challenge that record.
A divided government has often found favour with markets, as legislative gridlock reduces the likelihood of far-reaching changes in taxation, spending and regulation. With a Republican president in office, the S&P 500 has historically performed well in the years after midterms that left Congress under split control. Funding deadlines, debt-ceiling disputes and congressional investigations remain risks that can increase short-term volatility.
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