Solana Price Forecast: Can SOL Break Out of Its Stall Around $100 Amid Weak Institutional Demand?

• Bearish sentiment persists in Solana as it holds above $100 on Monday, following a 2% fall last week that extended its losing streak to three weeks.
• Weekly outflows from SOL-focused ETFs exceeded $17 million, after investors withdrew more than $8 million on Friday.
• Retail demand for Solana weakens as futures Open Interest falls from last week’s $6.34 billion to $6.18 billion.

A bearish near-term bias continues to weigh on Solana (SOL), although its price remains above $100 on Monday. The token has posted three successive weekly losses, with last week’s decline amounting to 2%. Institutional selling continues to put pressure on SOL-focused Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), which recorded a third week of outflows exceeding $17 million, while falling Open Interest points to softer retail demand. SOL’s technical outlook remains bearish, putting long-term support around $98 at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) under pressure.

Can Solana ETFs shake off sustained selling pressure?

A third consecutive week of withdrawals saw Solana-focused ETFs lose $17.30 million last week, taking monthly outflows to $72.24 million. Should withdrawals persist for another week, the monthly total could exceed $1 million, making it the largest monthly outflow since June’s $786,580. Outflows from ETFs generally indicate that institutional investors are selling their shares, signalling weaker confidence in the underlying asset.

Demand is also softening among retail participants in Solana futures. According to CoinGlass, SOL futures Open Interest (OI) has fallen from $6.34 billion last week to $6.18 billion on Monday. The decline indicates a lower notional value of outstanding contracts alongside falling spot prices and a possible wipeout of positions.

Overall, demand for the Layer-1 token remains subdued despite the Alpenglow upgrade last week. The upgrade replaced the old TowerBFT system with Votor, a new engine that reduced transaction finality from roughly 12 seconds to a targeted 150 milliseconds.

Technical outlook: Can SOL stage a rebound from $100?

At the time of writing on Monday, Solana is trading at $101.45, with upside constrained below the 50-day EMA of $105.99, while the price holds above the 200-day EMA of $98.27. Trading between these key averages points to a correction within a wider uptrend. An ascending support trendline around $86.67 adds strength to the underlying structure.

The daily chart continues to show subdued momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits slightly below its signal line in negative territory, suggesting that downward pressure persists.

Initial meaningful support lies at the 200-day EMA of $98.27. A confirmed breach could deepen the decline towards the ascending trendline near $86.67, where stronger buying interest would be expected should the correction continue.

For any recovery, the first resistance level is the 50-day EMA near $105.99. Beyond that lies the more distant horizontal resistance at $122.94, the high recorded on 25 September.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)