Euro holds near YTD low against USD as US macro data and ECB policy update remain in the spotlight

• Renewed selling pressure hits EUR/USD after the previous day's post-FOMC recovery from a 17-month low.
• The USD draws support from a hawkish Fed and geopolitical risks, even as France’s debt crisis puts pressure on the Euro.
• With key US economic releases and the crucial ECB decision ahead, traders await fresh market direction.

Selling pressure remains modest in EUR/USD during the first half of Thursday's European session, with the pair trading below 1.1150, near its lowest level since May 2025. Further declines remain limited, however, as traders await major US economic data and the key central bank decision.

Fresh signals on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook will be sought from the Advance US Q3 GDP report and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, both due later today. These major releases will influence the US Dollar (USD), giving EUR/USD some direction, before market focus turns to the eagerly awaited European Central Bank (ECB) decision.

An unchanged interest rate decision is widely anticipated from the ECB, alongside a continued hawkish inclination towards a possible 25-basis-point (bps) increase in December. Market participants will also closely examine the policy statement and remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde. These might trigger volatility in the shared currency and create further short-term trading opportunities in EUR/USD.

Pressure on the shared currency persists as France’s rising debt and political deadlock ahead of next year’s election remain a concern. By contrast, the USD is recovering after the previous day's corrective decline from a two-week high, supported by hawkish Fed expectations and geopolitical uncertainty. Together, these factors weigh on EUR/USD and strengthen the argument for additional losses.

At the close of its October policy meeting, the Fed voted 10-2 to leave interest rates unchanged, as widely anticipated. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favoured a quarter-point increase. During the subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also indicated that the central bank remains alert to persistent inflation risks arising from the Middle East conflict.

Combined with worries over energy-led price pressures, this reinforces the prospect of additional Fed tightening. Traders assign around an 80% probability to a rise in borrowing costs at the US central bank's December policy meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Such a hawkish outlook supports USD bulls and reinforces the negative near-term view for EUR/USD.

What does the EUR/USD 4-hour chart show?

Can EUR/USD Ease the Technical Selling Pressure?

Trading below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1216 on the 4-hour chart leaves EUR/USD with a bearish near-term bias. Before positioning for a continuation of the established downtrend seen over roughly the past two months, however, bears might wait for a break beneath the 1.1115-1.1110 zone.

The intraday swing high around 1.1160 may offer traders clues on whether a base is forming or the bearish sequence is continuing. A further rebound might nevertheless face resistance around 1.1200, ahead of the 100-period EMA at 1.1215. Only a sustained move above that level would ease the prevailing downside pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)