Cardano Price Forecast: Why is whale selling intensifying ADA’s correction?

• After shedding nearly 6% the day before, Cardano edges above $0.2100 on Friday.
• Selling pressure is gathering pace as whales sharply cut their ADA holdings, according to on-chain data.
• Sellers appear to have the upper hand as ADA Open Interest falls 11% in 24 hours, alongside a negative funding rate and increased long liquidations.

Bearish pressure continues to shape Cardano’s (ADA) outlook despite a recovery of nearly 2% on Friday after the previous day’s roughly 6% fall. The decline coincides with a preference for selling among large-wallet investors, known as whales, and in Cardano derivatives markets. Persistent downside momentum keeps ADA’s technical outlook bearish.

Are whales reducing their exposure to ADA?

Near-term selling pressure is rising as whales show less willingness to retain ADA tokens. According to Santiment, wallets holding 10 million to 100 million ADA tokens account for 37.93% of circulating supply on Friday, compared with 38.27% on October 10. 

By comparison, holders of more than 100 million ADA tokens control a smaller proportion of circulating supply. Their share has increased from 15.92% to 16.04% on Friday over the same period. Meanwhile, the proportion of ADA supply in profit has fallen from 30.78% to 17.8%, suggesting an abrupt spell of profit-booking. 

Overall, the bias towards selling evident in whale activity could constrain subsequent recovery attempts.

Are Cardano futures signalling stronger selling pressure?

Retail traders, too, are showing less appetite for bullish Cardano positions. As spot prices fall, the value of active positions is shrinking: CoinGlass puts ADA futures Open Interest (OI) at $464.36 million, a decline of 11% over the last 24 hours. A simultaneous fall in OI and spot prices typically points to the unwinding of long positions and lower leverage. Liquidations during that period total $1.60 million, of which long positions account for $1.56 million, underscoring the strength of market selling. 

Adding to that picture, the funding rate has turned negative at -0.0064%, suggesting traders are prepared to pay a premium to take short positions.

Technical outlook: Will Cardano hold support at $0.20?

Downside pressure persists for Cardano, which trades at $0.2159 at the time of writing on Friday, below its key moving averages and former rising support line. Overhead resistance comes from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2274 and the breached upward trend line near $0.2282, limiting near-term upside and reinforcing the bearish tone. Further up, the 200-day EMA at $0.2322 represents a structural barrier.

Sellers appear to retain control, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) moving lower into negative territory and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signalling weak momentum at 41.

With the easier path still pointing lower, immediate support lies at the round-number level of $0.2000. Below that is horizontal support at $0.1894, established by the August 30 low.

Any advance would first encounter the 50-day EMA around $0.2274, closely followed by the reclaimed trendline at $0.2282. Together, these levels create a narrow supply zone that buyers must clear to reduce immediate downside risk. The larger obstacle is the 200-day EMA near $0.2322. Sustained daily closes above it would begin to weaken the prevailing bearish bias and create scope for a wider recovery.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)