Brent: What do the election-driven sell-off and Iran risks mean? – Rabobank

Brent crude oil fell over 10% to $93 per barrel, moving below $100 for the first time since October 7, as Rabobank strategist Molly Schwartz highlights the market reaction to US election results that had largely been priced in. However, strategists Michael Every and Joe DeLaura contend that a US shift away from Iran or direct involvement in the region would not necessarily keep oil prices lower over the longer term.

Is the oil relief rally premature?

"The outcome of the election had largely been priced in both by prediction markets—and grown-up markets—but Brent crude oil still fell by more than 10% to $93/bbl, making its way below $100/bbl for the first time since October 7."

"That instability could relatively strengthen the US strategic hand as an energy exporter, while still imposing domestic costs through higher energy prices."

"Furthermore, our Global Energy Strategist, Joe DeLaura, believes that leaving Iran as master of the Persian Gulf would not guarantee flows of oil and other key products like aluminium, helium, LNG and fertilizers."

"The Gulf countries may end up in a new war to dislodge Iranian dominance over the seas or be forced to pay up for protection."

"A US pivot away from direct involvement therefore offers no assurance of sustainably lower oil prices after the initial selloff of false relief."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Learn more.)