Bitcoin Price Forecast: Why is BTC stalling near $80,000 as geopolitical tensions weaken risk appetite?

• Following three consecutive weeks of correction, Bitcoin trades near $80,500 on Monday.
• A return to net inflows ended two weeks of withdrawals from US-listed spot ETFs, which attracted $301 million last week.
• Risk appetite remains subdued as mounting Middle East geopolitical tensions drive oil prices upwards and heighten inflation worries.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure after three successive weeks of correction, trading near $80,500 at the time of writing on Monday. Institutional appetite, however, showed signs of recovery despite the weaker price: spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) attracted net inflows of $301.2 million last week, ending a two-week run of outflows.

The Crypto King nevertheless faces continued pressure as costlier crude oil and intensifying Middle East geopolitical tensions heighten inflation worries and curb appetite for risk.

Is institutional demand beginning to recover?

The price retreat did not prevent tentative signs of renewed institutional interest last week. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted $301.2 million in net inflows, reversing two consecutive weeks of outflows. The improvement in demand, however, failed to halt BTC's decline: it lost over 2% last week, completing three successive weeks of correction since early October. A continuation and acceleration of these inflows this week could help soften the ongoing fall in price.

How are geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices pressuring BTC?

Supply worries linked to attacks in Saudi Arabia and tensions involving Iran sent crude oil prices to their highest since September 15. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) touched $103.28 per barrel on Friday. 

In the latest development, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis pledged on Sunday to continue attacks on Saudi Arabia's King Khalid Airport in Riyadh. 

With US-Iran negotiations at a standstill, the geopolitical risk premium remains elevated, putting additional upward pressure on oil prices. Should energy costs stay high, inflation concerns could intensify, weakening risk appetite and limiting BTC's scope for gains.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Is BTC losing momentum?

Monday sees the Crypto King trading near $80,400 following last week's 2.39% correction, its third consecutive weekly loss since early October.

A further correction could take BTC towards $78,661, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn between the August 2024 low of $49,000 and the October 2025 record high of $126,199. This level broadly aligns with the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75,817.

Bullish momentum appears to be easing, with the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 54 and heading lower towards the neutral 50 mark. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, while still positive, is also displaying shorter bars. Together, these signals suggest that the broader upward momentum remains in place but is weakening amid nearby resistance and the continuing pullback.

A recovery, by contrast, could carry BTC towards the 50% retracement level at $87,823, followed by the 100-week SMA at $89,386.

A neutral consolidation is evident on BTC's daily chart. The price remains above the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $77,691 and $76,306 respectively, while the 50-day EMA at $80,816 continues to restrict gains. Trading between these trend indicators points to a broadly bullish backdrop, though near-term conviction is lacking. Meanwhile, a daily RSI reading of 43 signals waning momentum, and the MACD's position below zero suggests bullish momentum remains muted.

The first upside hurdle is the 50-day EMA at $80,816. Beyond it, the horizontal level near $85,000 presents a stronger barrier, where earlier selling pressure could return.

Initial downside support lies at the 100-day EMA of $77,691, followed by a deeper structural floor near the 200-day EMA at $76,306. A daily close beneath these supporting averages would likely shift the near-term bias towards a more bearish set-up.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)