AUD/USD Price Forecast: Will the 100-day EMA prove decisive ahead of RBA as the pair holds above 0.7000?

Fresh selling weighs on AUD/USD after China’s official PMIs, released over the weekend, disappoint.
Support for the USD from geopolitical uncertainty adds to the pressure on spot prices.
Ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision, the technical picture calls for caution among bearish traders.

AUD/USD begins the week on a slightly weaker footing, with the pair trading near 0.7020 in the Asian session, around 0.15% lower for the day. With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) due to announce its decision on Tuesday, however, traders may hold back from taking fresh directional positions.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Persistent inflationary pressures underpin widespread expectations that the Australian central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the close of its November meeting. The Aussie nevertheless faces some selling pressure following the disappointing official PMIs released by China over the weekend. Adding to the pressure on AUD/USD, geopolitical uncertainty is supporting demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).

The recent recovery in AUD/USD appears to be losing steam: the pair continues to trade below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7046 and has slipped beneath the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7026. Momentum oscillators, however, retain a constructive bias. Their readings point more towards consolidation than a decisive breakdown, suggesting aggressive bearish traders should remain cautious.

A marginally positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits close to the neutral 50 level. Against this backdrop, a further decline through the psychological 0.7000 mark could encounter immediate support at 0.6976, the 23.6% retracement. Should losses deepen, attention would turn to the structural low near 0.6894, where buyers may try to re-establish a medium-term floor.

Any upward move would first face resistance at 0.7026, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, before the 50.0% level at 0.7067 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.7107. Further up, the 78.6% barrier at 0.7165 and the cycle high at 0.7239 strengthen the broader supply zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD: daily price chart

Economic Release

RBA Interest Rate Decision

At the conclusion of each of its eight scheduled meetings every year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision. A rate increase, accompanied by a hawkish assessment of the economy’s inflation outlook, is generally bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Conversely, an unchanged rate or a rate cut, alongside a dovish view of the Australian economy, is regarded as bearish for AUD.

Find out more.

Upcoming release: Tue, 3 Nov 2026 03:30

Release frequency: Irregular

Market consensus: 4.85%

Previous reading: 4.6%

Data source: Reserve Bank of Australia