AUD/NZD Price Forecast: Aussie approaches two-month lows at 1.2265 after slipping below 1.2300

• Fresh three-week lows below 1.2300 come into view as AUD/NZD slumps nearly 0.7% on Monday.
• A sharp rise in the New Zealand Dollar on Monday follows provisional results showing a slim lead for the coalition government after Sunday's elections.
• The 1.2265 to 1.2270 zone is the key support area in focus for bears.

Selling pressure on the Aussie Dollar (AUD) intensified against the strengthening New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on Monday after provisional general election results in New Zealand indicated a narrow victory for the governing coalition. Down 0.7% so far in the session, AUD/NZD touched intraday lows just below 1.2300. Bears are now watching the lower end of the past two months’ trading range at 1.2265-1.2270.

A slim parliamentary majority appears possible for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s centre-right National Party and its coalition partner, the Labour Party, with early election results showing that they have retained 67 of the 131 seats. The final outcome will not be available until 27 November, however. Leaders of the major parties have said they will hold off on negotiations until then.

Meanwhile, Monday’s economic releases from China presented a mixed picture. Annual growth in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 0.7% in October from 0.9% in September. By contrast, the Producer Price Index jumped 5.7% year-on-year, reaching its highest level in more than four years. Following the releases, both the Aussie and the Kiwi gained.

Technical Analysis: Will bears test key support near 1.2265?

At 1.2299, AUD/NZD remains below the descending channel’s lower boundary as its retreat from the late-October highs continues. A strongly bearish picture emerges from momentum indicators on the 4-hour charts. The Relative Strength Index (14) is approaching oversold territory but has not yet reached it, while expanding red bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram signal the risk of additional losses before a meaningful rebound.

With the pair below 1.2300, bears may be drawn towards another test of the 8 September and 16 October lows in the 1.2265-1.2270 zone. Beyond that, the 4 September low of 1.2220 would be the next downside target, though it appears somewhat beyond reach over the coming sessions.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance near 1.2335 at the channel’s lower boundary. The former support zone ahead of 1.2375, marked by the 5 and 6 November lows, comes next, followed by the 1.2425 region, where Friday's high coincides with the channel's upper boundary.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)