Renewed AI optimism is lifting Nasdaq 100 futures after SpaceX and Super Micro delivered results well above forecasts. Meta is next to report earnings.

Confidence in the AI trade is recovering, lifting Nasdaq futures after Tuesday's flat close. Better-than-expected earnings from AI stocks are helping sentiment recover from last week's sell-off.

Brent remains above $110 a barrel, but that has not prevented the improvement in sentiment. Attacks near the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns over supply, while U.S. data indicate a further decline in crude inventories. Costlier oil is also fuelling inflation worries: if interest rates remain elevated for longer, technology stocks could come under pressure. At present, however, robust earnings are supporting market confidence.

What Drove SpaceX's Forecast-Beating Results?

With Q3 earnings and revenue across its divisions comfortably exceeding expectations, SpaceX shares are gaining 8% in pre-market trading.

An almost twofold increase in subscribers helped Starlink, the company's satellite internet service, deliver 69% revenue growth. Revenue at the rocket division increased 6% year-on-year. Meanwhile, a tenfold revenue increase was recorded by Superintelligence, SpaceX's AI division, which encompasses its data centre rental operations and Grok chatbot.

Against a $1.1 billion loss in the corresponding period a year earlier, SpaceX posted Q3 net income of $4.4 billion. At $14.6 billion, revenue comfortably exceeded Wall Street's $12.87 billion estimate. EPS reached $0.35, more than twice the anticipated $0.15.

SpaceX's expansion in the data centre market is evident in these figures. Agreements to rent data centre capacity to Anthropic, Google and Reflection AI are worth a combined $28 billion in annual revenue.

The high cost of constructing data centres makes access to affordable borrowing important, and companies do not all enjoy the same financing terms. Concerns about CoreWeave's ability to repay debt pushed its bond yields above 15% last week. By contrast, SpaceX's bond yields stand at around 7%, providing a substantial funding advantage. Alongside that advantage, its $90 billion cash position puts SpaceX in a stronger position to expand while competitors contend with higher borrowing costs.

Investors also have an approaching expiry of lock-up restrictions to consider. Over the next few days, restrictions on around 35% of SpaceX shares are set to lapse, permitting sales by investors and company insiders. Some may choose to realise gains, potentially increasing share-price volatility while sentiment towards AI stocks is still fragile.

Why Has Super Micro's Outlook Lifted Sentiment?

Forecast-beating results have also lifted Super Micro Computer shares by 16%. Its quarterly revenue projection now stands at $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion, substantially above earlier guidance of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion.

Some confidence has returned to AI-linked stocks following these results. Last week, investors were unsettled by valuation concerns, the financing costs of AI infrastructure expansion and questions over returns on substantial spending. Semiconductor stocks declined 12%, and the Nasdaq closed the week 3% lower.

Meta Platforms is next in focus, with results due after today's U.S. market close. Investors will seek more evidence that AI demand is feeding through to earnings growth.

Although the latest earnings offer encouragement, questions about spending and financing remain unresolved. Higher oil prices further complicate the outlook: persistent inflation could leave interest rates elevated, increasing the cost of the next stage of AI expansion.

Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis: Can the Recovery Clear Resistance?

Support emerged around 29,200 after the Nasdaq 100 retreated from a record high of 31,365. Although the index has rebounded from that low, it continues to trade beneath its 50 EMA and two descending trendline resistance levels. The near-term technical outlook therefore remains bearish, notwithstanding the recovery in futures.

A move below 29,200 is the break sellers will be watching for. Such a move would put the June 9 low of 28,200 and the 200 EMA near 28,150 in focus.

For buyers, the immediate requirement is to regain the resistance area at 29,830, where the 50 EMA meets the falling trendlines. Clearing that zone would pave the way towards 31,000, followed by 31,350 near the record high.