WTI Price Forecast: US-Iran peace hopes limit upside as price holds modest gains above $96.00

• WTI resumes gains on Tuesday as geopolitical uncertainty persists.
• Prospects for a diplomatic solution with Iran could limit any substantial rise in oil prices.
• A favourable technical backdrop indicates that corrective declines could attract buyers.

Trading above $96.00, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is up over 1.0% on Tuesday as buyers return during the Asian session. The advance recovers some of the previous day's sharp fall towards $94.30, a low not seen for over two weeks, against a backdrop of mixed developments in the Middle East crisis.

Despite Tehran's revised proposals to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz for two days, several days of talks between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators produced no major breakthrough. A geopolitical risk premium therefore remains embedded in oil prices, providing some support. However, talks between the US and Iran are reportedly continuing. US President Donald Trump also said on Monday that Iran wants a deal to end the war and that an agreement could be reached.

Further encouragement for diplomacy came from Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, who said Tehran is looking to resolve problems through dialogue. His comments bolster hopes of a diplomatic settlement to end the eight-month war, potentially restricting any substantial advance in crude oil prices. Strong follow-through buying would therefore be needed before fresh bullish positions could prudently be taken in anticipation of a resumption of the established uptrend seen over roughly the past four months.

With prices holding above all key Fibonacci retracement support levels, the near-term technical outlook for oil remains bullish. Immediate support now lies at the 23.6% retracement of $95.18. Momentum signals nevertheless warrant caution: the Relative Strength Index, close to 50.0, points to neutral pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned marginally negative. As long as crude oil remains above these underlying levels, the latest retreat appears more consistent with consolidation than a reversal of the trend.

At $103.87, the recent cycle high and Fibonacci anchor forms the next major resistance level. A decisive move through it would clear the way for the prevailing bullish trend to extend. Below current prices, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $95.18 provides initial support. A wider zone of demand follows around the 38.2% retracement at $89.81 and the 100-day SMA at $85.86, with the nearby 50.0% retracement at $85.46 lending further strength to that medium-term base. A steeper fall would bring the 61.8% retracement at $81.12 into view, followed by the lower Fibonacci levels of $74.93 and $67.05.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI price action on the daily chart