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USD/JPY Price Forecast: Holds near 20-day EMA
- USD/JPY slips towards 157.90 amid continued US Dollar underperformance.
- Republican policy continuity is at risk following the US Democrats’ midterm election victory.
- A Fed interest rate rise at December’s policy meeting remains a firm expectation among investors.
A 0.3% decline takes USD/JPY towards 157.90 in Thursday’s European session, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) gaining against the US Dollar (USD). Weighing on the pair is the US Dollar’s underperformance, driven by concerns that United States (US) Republicans would find it difficult to maintain their policies following their midterm election setback against the Democrats.
US Dollar Lags Major Currencies Today
Today’s percentage moves in the US Dollar (USD) relative to the major currencies listed are set out below. Its largest loss was against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.29% | -0.16% | -0.32% | -0.12% | -0.17% | -0.41% | -0.33% | |
| EUR | 0.29% | 0.13% | -0.05% | 0.16% | 0.12% | -0.14% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | -0.13% | -0.17% | 0.03% | -0.01% | -0.25% | -0.19% | |
| JPY | 0.32% | 0.05% | 0.17% | 0.21% | 0.17% | -0.10% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | 0.12% | -0.16% | -0.03% | -0.21% | -0.04% | -0.30% | -0.22% | |
| AUD | 0.17% | -0.12% | 0.01% | -0.17% | 0.04% | -0.23% | -0.17% | |
| NZD | 0.41% | 0.14% | 0.25% | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.23% | 0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.33% | 0.06% | 0.19% | 0.01% | 0.22% | 0.17% | -0.10% |
Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. Selecting the US Dollar on the left and following its row across to the Japanese Yen, for instance, gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.
At the time of writing, a 0.25% fall has brought the US Dollar Index (DXY) to around 101.24. The index, which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, remains near the monthly low of 101.10 reached the day before.
A Democratic sweep would be likely to “lead to gridlock on the debt ceiling, a prolonged government shutdown next year”, according to analysts at ING. The bank also cautioned that “fears of tougher regulation could weigh on Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks (we’ve recently seen how that can hit the greenback)”.
Attention on the economic calendar now turns to Friday’s release of October’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures. Investors expect the report to have a substantial influence on expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy.
USD/JPY Holds a Neutral Near-Term Technical Bias
Trading at 157.93 on the daily chart, USD/JPY remains close to its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 157.90. This leaves the short-term outlook broadly neutral.
Neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage at present: the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 50.66, is close to its midpoint, suggesting limited directional conviction following the recent price swings.
The first downside support lies around 157.90 at the 20-day EMA. A breach would leave recent lows in view should selling pressure gather pace. With the supplied dataset showing no nearby technical resistance, traders may instead watch psychological round numbers and earlier swing highs above the current price for potential selling pressure on further advances.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Data Release
Nonfarm Payrolls Track US Job Creation
Published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Nonfarm Payrolls measures the number of jobs added across US non-agricultural businesses in the preceding month. Month-to-month payroll changes can fluctuate sharply, while substantial revisions to the figures can also generate volatility in the foreign exchange market. A strong reading is generally regarded as positive for the US Dollar (USD), and a weak result as negative. However, revisions to earlier months and the Unemployment Rate matter just as much as the headline number. The market response therefore reflects investors’ assessment of the BLS report in its entirety.
Find out more.Next publication: Fri 06 Nov 2026 13:30
Publication frequency: Every month
Consensus forecast: 65K
Previous reading: 29K
Data source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The monthly change in US employment is closely linked to the economy’s overall performance, making America’s jobs report what is regarded as the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Published on the first Friday after the reporting month, the figures are closely watched by policymakers. With full employment among its mandates, the Federal Reserve takes labour market developments into account when setting policy, which in turn affects currencies. Although several leading indicators inform forecasts, Nonfarm Payrolls often catch markets by surprise and prompt sizeable price swings. A reading above the consensus forecast tends to support the USD.
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