EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Mildly positive momentum leaves pair holding losses below 178.00

At 177.08, the nine-day EMA offers the first support level EUR/JPY may test.
With the 14-day Relative Strength Index near 53, momentum appears modestly positive.
Near 178.50, the descending channel’s upper boundary provides the first resistance level.

Trading at around 177.90 in Thursday’s European session, EUR/JPY is retreating following three consecutive days of gains. On the daily chart, technical analysis indicates that the cross remains inside a descending channel, suggesting that the prevailing bias is bearish.

Nearby dynamic levels are keeping EUR/JPY in check: the cross remains above its nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 50-day EMA continues to cap advances. This restricts further upside and leaves the broader outlook neutral for now. With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 53, momentum looks mildly positive, suggesting buyers retain a degree of control as long as the price holds above the shorter-term EMA.

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At 177.08, the nine-day EMA could provide the first support for EUR/JPY. Below that lies the 12-month low of 175.07, recorded on 30 October, with the descending channel’s lower boundary offering further support around 174.20. Should the cross break beneath the channel, it could move towards the area around the 15-month low of 169.72.

The descending channel’s upper boundary, near 178.50, is the first resistance EUR/JPY may test on the upside, ahead of the 50-day EMA at 178.69. A sustained break above this medium-term moving average would trigger a bullish reversal, allowing the cross to move towards the region around its all-time high of 187.95, set on 17 April.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY: Daily Chart Shows Descending Channel

Euro and US inflation swaps fall to two-month lows

A sharp repricing of market-based expectations accompanied the shift in spot inflation data, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank. They note that this “led to a huge decline in inflation expectations, with the Euro 1yr inflation swap (-25.9bps) down to a two-month low of 3.10%, whilst the 1yr US inflation swap (-24.9bps) hit a two-month low of 2.16%.” In their view, the simultaneous decline in Euro and US 1-year inflation swaps highlights the speed at which near-term price pressures are being revised lower on both sides of the Atlantic.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Performs Weakest Against New Zealand Dollar Today

Today’s percentage moves in the Euro (EUR) against the major currencies listed are set out below. The Euro’s weakest performance was against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.12%	-0.02%	-0.14%	-0.06%	-0.08%	-0.24%	-0.07%
EUR	0.12%		0.10%	-0.05%	0.05%	0.04%	-0.13%	0.03%
GBP	0.02%	-0.10%		-0.15%	-0.05%	-0.06%	-0.21%	-0.06%
JPY	0.14%	0.05%	0.15%		0.08%	0.08%	-0.11%	0.06%
CAD	0.06%	-0.05%	0.05%	-0.08%		-0.00%	-0.18%	-0.02%
AUD	0.08%	-0.04%	0.06%	-0.08%	0.00%		-0.15%	-0.01%
NZD	0.24%	0.13%	0.21%	0.11%	0.18%	0.15%		0.18%
CHF	0.07%	-0.03%	0.06%	-0.06%	0.02%	0.00%	-0.18%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. To read EUR (base)/USD (quote), for instance, choose the Euro on the left and follow its row across to the US Dollar; the corresponding cell shows the percentage change for that pair.