Ripple and Stellar outlook: XRP and XLM build fresh momentum as derivatives activity gathers pace

• Above $1.35, XRP's recovery enters a second consecutive day, supported by the 100-day EMA.
• At $0.1800, XLM has re-established immediate support, with the RSI's recovery towards bullish territory lending further backing. 
• At 2.23 billion XRP and 1.22 billion XLM, rising perpetual futures open interest points to greater derivatives market activity.

Persistent inflation in the United States (US) provides the backdrop to Wednesday's gradual recovery in Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM), ahead of next week's Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision. Both tokens are regaining momentum alongside gains in major digital assets. With XRP moving above $1.36 and XLM reaching $0.1854, the advances strengthen recently tested support levels.

An 85% probability of interest rates remaining within the 3.75-4.00% range is priced in by the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, against a 15% chance of a 25-basis-point increase. Although XRP and XLM are showing signs of recovery, traders appear to be restricting their risk exposure as the Fed decision approaches.

Retail trading activity strengthens in XRP and XLM

Perpetual futures open interest (OI) reached 2.23 billion XRP on Wednesday, edging up from 2.18 billion XRP a day earlier as derivatives trading gathered pace. According to CoinGlass data, OI stood at 2.12 billion XRP on Sunday, suggesting retail traders are attempting to establish an upward trend. 

Confirmation of sustained interest remains elusive, however: the latest reading is still well short of September's 2.46 billion XRP peak and August's 2.77 billion XRP high.

From 1.14 billion XLM the previous day, Stellar futures OI has increased to 1.22 billion XLM on Wednesday. Binance accounts for roughly 217 million XLM and Bybit for 222 million XLM, while total OI has recovered from Monday's 1.12 billion XLM. As leveraged positions expand alongside the continuing price rise, speculative interest in the token appears to be strengthening.

Technical analysis: XRP gains as selling pressure subsides

At $1.36, XRP remains beneath both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), each at $1.38. That positioning leaves the short-term outlook bearish, notwithstanding the recent rebound from lows.

Overhead constraints include the SuperTrend line at $1.47 and the broader descending resistance trendline projected towards $1.61. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 46 in neutral territory and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still slightly negative, the indicators suggest fading upward momentum rather than a decisive bullish reversal.

The convergence of the 200-day and 50-day EMAs near $1.38 forms the first resistance area. Only a daily close above this cluster would ease the prevailing downward pressure. Beyond it, further hurdles lie at the SuperTrend barrier near $1.47 and the descending trendline area towards $1.62. Initial support, meanwhile, is provided by the 100-day EMA at $1.34; a breach would likely pave the way for a more pronounced retreat towards earlier price lows.

Stellar technical analysis: XLM bulls seek recovery as momentum strengthens

With recently confirmed support near $0.1700 holding, XLM has advanced to $0.1854 as bullish momentum gathers. Nevertheless, the two-day rise has not displaced the bearish outlook: the token remains below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, grouped between roughly $0.1900 and $0.1946, as well as SuperTrend resistance at $0.2060. A slowly recovering but negative MACD, together with an RSI near 44, points to muted momentum rather than a forceful reversal.

A tightly packed resistance zone begins with the 100-day EMA at $0.1903, followed by the 50-day EMA at $0.1934 and the 200-day EMA at $0.1946. Above this cluster sit the SuperTrend level at $0.2060 and descending trendline resistance higher up, around $0.2263. For downside risks, attention centres first on the current price pivot at $0.1854. Should a break below that level be sustained, the next significant support would be the former descending trendline breakout area near $0.1685.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)