Bitcoin vs Gold Forecast: XAU breaks above $4,100 as BTC gains momentum towards $84K

• Following a macroeconomic-driven correction, Bitcoin climbs towards $83,000 after buyers firmly defended support around $80,000.
• With major moving averages overhead appearing to constrain its recovery, gold makes a modest gain above $4,100.
• Despite continuing macroeconomic uncertainty, the likelihood of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged next week stands at 85%.

Higher inflation in the United States (US) and continuing geopolitical pressures have prompted investors to rebalance their portfolios, with Bitcoin (BTC) recently testing and confirming support around $80,000. On Wednesday, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation moves modestly higher as buyers appear to take on more risk. 

A modest daily gain keeps gold (XAU/USD) above $4,100. However, the wider trend remains bearish, and structural levels appear to constrain the metal’s scope for recovery.

Markets continue to favour a Fed rate hold ahead of October decision

An 85% probability of unchanged rates at the 28 October decision is indicated by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which would leave the range at 3.75%-4.00%. Market pricing therefore strongly favours a hold at next week’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed). By comparison, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase to the 4.00-4.25% range is roughly 15%.

Last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report highlighted persistent US inflation, providing the backdrop to strong expectations that rates will remain unchanged. Meanwhile, interest rate traders are assigning a greater probability to a rate increase in December.

In an analysis report sent by email, Crypto Finance said: “Markets currently assign approximately an 85% probability to unchanged rates at the October 28 meeting, although expectations for another rate hike in December remain elevated,”

Wednesday’s Fear & Greed Index reading of 63, in Greed territory, compares with 55 a day earlier, reflecting the macroeconomic backdrop’s continuing influence on cryptocurrency risk appetite. Even with sentiment elevated, the Fed’s persistently restrictive monetary policy continues to temper conviction in a strong move higher.

Bitcoin holds above key support: Technical analysis

At $83,564, Bitcoin retains a positive bullish bias, trading comfortably above its short-, medium- and long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). An underlying demand zone below the current price is reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $80,795 and the SuperTrend baseline around $79,664. Nevertheless, a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading points to fading upward momentum.

With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) broadly neutral near 55, the price action suggests consolidation within the wider uptrend rather than a rally that has run out of steam entirely.

On a pullback, buyers could seek to regain control at the first support level, the 50-day EMA at $80,794, and then at the SuperTrend line at $79,664. Further down, the 100-day EMA at $77,352 and the 200-day EMA at $76,177 provide structural support. Provided these levels hold, they should sustain the broader bullish structure.

Gold holds support as XAU recovery faces constraints: Technical analysis

Trading at $4,134, gold is attempting a recovery above support at $4,100 as buyers press for gains. Although this demand zone is encouraging investors to consider returning to the market, the price remains below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, leaving the metal under near-term pressure. The nearest of these averages, at $4,241, reinforces the bearish bias, despite the MACD registering a mildly positive reading above zero. Meanwhile, an RSI of around 43 remains neutral, suggesting muted momentum rather than capitulation.

The 50-day EMA near $4,241 provides the first resistance, ahead of the 200-day EMA at $4,291 and the 100-day EMA at $4,294. Beyond those levels, the SuperTrend line at $4,327 sets a wider ceiling for recovery attempts. With no structural support levels on the daily chart, traders must instead look to psychological demand zones, including $4,100 and $4,000, respectively. A sustained move back below this support range would probably pave the way for a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)