Ripple Price Forecast: XRP builds upward momentum even as leveraged traders scale back risk exposure

• A 5% gain over two days leaves XRP trading above $1.35 on Wednesday, with buyers seemingly beginning to regain ground.
• As traders scale back their risk exposure, Binance’s Estimated Leverage Ratio falls 26% in less than a month.
• The 100-day EMA provides support for XRP, while the 50-day and 200-day EMAs form resistance above the price.

A second consecutive day of gains takes Ripple (XRP) above $1.36 on Wednesday, suggesting buyers may be starting to recover their footing. After the recent sell-off below $1.30, the token’s gradual advance offers tentative signs of a potential reversal.

Short- and long-term moving averages nevertheless constrain XRP’s recovery, leaving the technical structure restrictive for further gains. Medium-term support near $1.34, however, suggests some protection against downside pressure and increases the prospect of a rebound towards $1.40. A decisive break beneath that support zone would instead risk a more extensive sell-off, potentially bringing the lower demand areas at $1.12 and $1.00 into focus.

Interest in XRP derivatives weakens

From 0.229 in September, XRP’s Estimated Leveraged Ratio on Binance has declined 26.2% to around 0.169. The fall points to a marked reduction in traders’ relative exposure to leveraged positions.

The decline indicates subdued demand for leveraged XRP positions, with traders cutting risk either by closing outstanding positions or by using less leverage. A lower ratio is also likely to make the token less sensitive to volatility associated with leveraged positions. The extent of that effect, however, depends on conditions across the wider crypto market and the size of the positions still open.

Writing in the CryptoQuant Insights section, Arab Chain cautioned: “However, a decline in this metric does not necessarily mean that traders are shifting toward selling, nor does it independently signal a bearish or bullish market trend,” adding, “The decline may reflect a reduction in leveraged positioning, potentially mitigating the risks associated with liquidations.”

Perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) averages 3.04 billion XRP on Wednesday, compared with 2.84 billion XRP the previous day, indicating a gradual increase in derivatives demand among leveraged traders. Even so, it remains substantially below the August and September peaks of 3.78 billion and 3.67 billion XRP. Consistent with Binance’s Estimated Leveraged Ratio, these readings suggest a recovery could prove difficult unless traders substantially increase their risk exposure.

Technical analysis: XRP edges higher within a broader bearish structure

Following this week’s earlier correction below $1.30, buyers are attempting to regain control of XRP’s trend, with the token trading above $1.36. However, the remittance token remains beneath its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $1.38 and $1.37 respectively. These levels maintain a bearish near-term bias and suggest overhead supply continues to limit rallies.

Further reinforcing the ceiling is the SuperTrend line at $1.47. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains just below zero and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 47, pointing to subdued momentum with little clear direction rather than a convincing recovery.

At $1.38, the 200-day EMA marks the first resistance, with the 50-day EMA close behind. Together, they form a narrow technical hurdle ahead of the SuperTrend level at $1.47 and the broader downtrend structure marked by $1.62 and $1.70. Immediate downside support lies at the 100-day EMA at $1.34. A decisive break below it would likely pave the way for further losses over the coming sessions.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)