Japanese Yen pares gains amid US Dollar recovery from election shock

  • USD/JPY recovers from a session low of 157.80 to 158.40, remaining within its earlier trading ranges.
  • Strong US economic figures are gradually drawing market attention away from the midterm elections, leaving Dollar bears with less momentum.
  • Hopes of additional monetary tightening in December received support from the BoJ's monetary policy minutes.

Robust US economic data have returned to the spotlight as the dust settles after the midterm elections, helping the US Dollar (USD) rebound from highs on Thursday. Against that backdrop, the Japanese Yen (JPY) has surrendered most of its earlier gains. Having recovered from session lows near 157.80, USD/JPY is back around 158.40.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Lower Oil prices and retreating US Treasury yields in the wake of the US midterm election outcome continue to put considerable pressure on US Dollar bulls. Yet the selling momentum seen on Wednesday and in Thursday's Asian session appears to be fading on Thursday. Markets are digesting the election results and turning their attention towards encouraging US economic figures.

US data point to robust economic momentum

October's net job gains reached 86K, according to Wednesday's ADP Employment report, exceeding the market forecast of 69K. The release followed strong JOLTS Job Openings figures on Thursday, which have raised expectations of a robust Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.

Wednesday also brought the  US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which eased modestly from 54.9 in September to 54.5 in October. Even so, the reading remained consistent with solid activity in the sector, alongside rising employment and price pressures holding at elevated levels. A comparable picture emerged from Monday's ISM Manufacturing PMI, while Tuesday's Factory Orders exceeded forecasts.

With these releases reinforcing market expectations of another quarter-point interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve at its December meeting, investors are reluctant to take large short positions in the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, minutes from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) September monetary policy meeting showed that policymakers consider further interest rate increases necessary. Some advocated a steeper tightening cycle, reinforcing expectations of another rise in December. Following the release, the Yen made modest gains, only to give way to US Dollar strength during the European session.

Japanese Yen: Key Questions Answered

Among the world's most actively traded currencies, the Japanese Yen (JPY) derives its value broadly from Japan's economic performance. More specific influences include the Bank of Japan's policy stance, the gap between Japanese and US bond yields, and traders' appetite for risk, alongside other factors.

Currency control is part of the Bank of Japan's mandate, making its actions an important influence on the Yen. On occasion, the BoJ has intervened directly in currency markets, usually with the aim of weakening the Yen. It avoids frequent intervention, however, because of political concerns among its main trading partners. Between 2013 and 2024, the BoJ's ultra-loose monetary policy weakened the Yen against its major currency peers as its policy stance increasingly diverged from those of other leading central banks. The gradual unwinding of that policy has more recently provided some support for the Yen.

By maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy over the past decade, the BoJ has moved further apart from other central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. That divergence helped widen the yield gap between 10-year US and Japanese bonds, supporting the US Dollar relative to the Japanese Yen. The differential is now narrowing as a result of the BoJ's 2024 decision to move gradually away from ultra-loose policy, alongside interest rate cuts by other major central banks.

Investors often regard the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven asset. During periods of market stress, its perceived reliability and stability make them more inclined to place funds in the Japanese currency. Such turbulence is therefore likely to lift the Yen against currencies considered riskier investments.