Bailey speech: Latest oil price decline brings positive news

Following the November meeting’s decision to increase the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4%, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey outlines the policy outlook and takes questions from the press.

Bailey sets out the policy outlook

"Market curve prices further restrictiveness into next year, but this largely reflects risk premia, not expected rates, this seems fair reflection of energy risks."

"Latest fall in oil prices is positive news."

"Unless there is progress towards resolving conflict, further increase in bank rate may be warranted."

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"Good news on Iran conflict would reduce risk of further inflation pressures, could lead to CPI peak somewhat below 5%."

"Had we known what would happen in last 48 hours, rate decision would still have been the same."

"If we do see a peace process, that would be a good thing and lower energy prices."

BoE policy explained

Responsibility for the United Kingdom’s monetary policy rests with the Bank of England (BoE), whose main objective is ‘price stability’: a steady inflation rate of 2%. To pursue that objective, it adjusts base lending rates. By setting the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and at which banks lend to one another, the BoE determines the overall level of interest rates across the economy. The value of the pound sterling (GBP) is also affected.

Inflation above the Bank of England’s target prompts it to increase interest rates, raising borrowing costs for households and businesses. Sterling benefits because higher rates make the UK a more attractive destination for global investors’ funds. Below-target inflation, by contrast, signals slowing economic growth. The BoE will then consider cutting interest rates to make credit cheaper, hoping to encourage businesses to borrow for investment in projects that generate growth. This is negative for sterling.

When interest rate cuts cannot deliver the required outcome, the Bank of England can turn to Quantitative Easing (QE) as a last resort in extreme circumstances. This policy substantially expands the flow of credit through a stalled financial system. To carry it out, the BoE prints money and purchases assets from banks and other financial institutions, usually government bonds or AAA-rated corporate bonds. A weaker pound sterling is the usual result of QE.

As the economy strengthens and inflation begins to rise, quantitative tightening (QT) reverses QE. Under QE, the Bank of England (BoE) buys government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage lending. Under QT, however, it ceases further bond purchases and no longer reinvests the principal repaid as its existing bond holdings mature. The effect on sterling is usually positive.