Forex Today: Jobs data and midterms take centre stage

Ahead of key US data releases and the US Midterm elections, caution has kept the US Dollar (USD) in a fluctuating range on Tuesday. Trading has broadly mirrored moves elsewhere in the FX market, with uncertainty over the Middle East crisis also persisting.

Trading just beneath the key 102.00 resistance level, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has consolidated with a modest daily gain, reversing the previous day’s retreat. The regular MBA Mortgage Applications figures are scheduled for 4 November, followed by the ADP Employment Change report, Balance of Trade figures, the final S&P Global Services PMI, the ISM Services PMI and the EIA’s weekly US crude oil inventories report. 

A slight rise in EUR/USD has left the pair still short of a decisive break above the key 1.1200 resistance level. Final S&P Global Services PMI readings for the EMU and Germany are next on the calendar, ahead of preliminary eurozone inflation figures.

Tuesday has seen GBP/USD regain ground above 1.3400, extending its run of gains over several days. The final S&P Global Services PMI is the sole release on the UK data calendar.

As USD/JPY has reached multi-day highs, the pair has also tested its key 200-day SMA around 158.60. Japan’s next scheduled release is the Monetary Base figures.

Despite the RBA’s rate increase, AUD/USD has failed to find fresh upward momentum. Instead, renewed heavy selling has taken the pair back towards two-week lows around 0.6960. Australia’s Household Spending figures are due next.

Speculation that a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict may be taking shape has weighed further on front-month WTI futures (December contract), bringing prices towards $93.00 per barrel.

Partly unwinding Monday’s gains, gold has remained under pressure and once again broken below $3,900 per troy ounce. Persistent expectations of further Fed rate increases, alongside growing caution ahead of the US Midterm elections results, have driven the precious metal’s decline.