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Fed’s Barkin gives no December signal as he judges rates close to neutral
At a historic level is government debt rather than consumer debt, according to Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Tom Barkin, who said that “government, not consumer debt is at a historic level.” Speaking at the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce in South Carolina, he also said he had “no base case” for interest rates at the December meeting.
Although Barkin described the latest jobs report as healthy, he continued to see an environment of limited hiring and firing. On interest rates, he suggested that the “current policy rate [is] likely around or slightly below neutral”.
Main points from Barkin’s remarks:
Debt is at a historic level for the government, rather than consumers
December meeting has no base-case outlook
Economic effects of the elections are difficult to gauge
Policy rate is probably near neutral or slightly below it
Scheduling each Fed policy meeting to take in two full months of economic data would be beneficial
Despite a healthy latest jobs report, firms still appear to be doing little hiring or firing.
In my view, ballot measures passed in recent elections will not hinder data centre expansion; firms will find places to build
US Dollar Performs Best Against Canadian Dollar Today
Against the Canadian Dollar, the US Dollar (USD) recorded its strongest performance today. Today’s percentage movements in the USD against the major currencies listed appear in the table below.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.56% | -0.55% | -0.30% | 0.07% | -0.69% | -1.45% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | 0.56% | 0.01% | 0.27% | 0.63% | -0.14% | -0.89% | 0.60% | |
| GBP | 0.55% | -0.01% | 0.28% | 0.61% | -0.15% | -0.90% | 0.59% | |
| JPY | 0.30% | -0.27% | -0.28% | 0.35% | -0.41% | -1.17% | 0.32% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | -0.63% | -0.61% | -0.35% | -0.76% | -1.51% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.69% | 0.14% | 0.15% | 0.41% | 0.76% | -0.75% | 0.74% | |
| NZD | 1.45% | 0.89% | 0.90% | 1.17% | 1.51% | 0.75% | 1.50% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | -0.60% | -0.59% | -0.32% | 0.02% | -0.74% | -1.50% |
Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. Selecting the US Dollar on the left and following its row across to the Japanese Yen, for instance, gives the percentage movement for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.
The Fed Explained
With a dual mandate of price stability and full employment, the Federal Reserve (Fed) sets US monetary policy. Adjustments to interest rates are its main means of pursuing these objectives. If prices climb too rapidly and inflation exceeds its 2% target, the Fed increases interest rates, pushing up borrowing costs across the economy. The US consequently becomes a more attractive destination for international investors’ funds, strengthening the US Dollar (USD). Conversely, inflation below 2% or an excessively high unemployment rate may prompt the Fed to cut rates to stimulate borrowing, putting pressure on the Greenback.
At the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) eight annual policy meetings, economic conditions are reviewed and monetary policy decisions taken by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Twelve Fed officials participate in the FOMC: all seven Board of Governors members, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and four of the other eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents. The latter serve rotating one-year terms.
To substantially increase credit flows when the financial system is stalled, the Federal Reserve may turn to Quantitative Easing (QE) in extreme circumstances. Reserved for crises or periods of exceptionally low inflation, this unconventional policy was the Fed’s preferred response during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. Under QE, the Fed prints additional Dollars to purchase high-grade bonds from financial institutions. The policy generally puts downward pressure on the US Dollar.
By reversing QE, quantitative tightening (QT) generally supports the value of the US Dollar. Under this policy, the Federal Reserve ceases bond purchases from financial institutions and, as its existing bonds mature, does not use the principal repaid to buy new bonds.
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