EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls await break above range-top resistance at 1.1270

Broad USD weakness keeps EUR/USD on a firmer footing for a second consecutive day.
Elevated Eurozone CPI reinforced expectations of an ECB rate rise, providing further backing for the Euro and EUR/USD.
Further upside requires confirmation from a break above the trading range that has held for a month.

At around 1.1265 in Thursday’s Asian session, EUR/USD remains close to the near one-week high reached the day before, extending its advance into a second consecutive day.

A Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections has fuelled concerns over fiscal gridlock, with potential constraints on government spending threatening to slow economic growth. Against that backdrop, the US Dollar (USD) has fallen to its lowest level since late September. Hopes that the Iran war could end are also depressing crude oil prices, tempering inflation concerns and prompting another fall in US bond yields. These factors are outweighing expectations of a rate rise by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), keeping the dollar under pressure and, in turn, providing apparent support for EUR/USD.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Annual headline inflation in the Eurozone reached 4.0% in October, a three-year high, according to Wednesday’s figures. The release strengthened expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) would raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in December, supporting the single currency and reinforcing EUR/USD’s positive tone. Nevertheless, France’s mounting debt and political deadlock could deter Euro bulls from taking aggressive positions, limiting the pair’s scope for further gains.

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD remains above its 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), although a break above 1.1270 still eludes the bulls. That resistance marks the upper boundary of the range in place for a month. Near-term momentum signals remain favourable: the Relative Strength Index sits in bullish territory just short of overbought levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains positive. Taken together, these indicators suggest buyers continue to hold the upper hand.

A failure to clear that resistance, however, would point to weakening bullish momentum and pull EUR/USD below 1.1200. If trading becomes established beneath that level, the bottom of the range around 1.1120-1.1110 could come into view. A decisive break below this zone would be regarded as a fresh bearish trigger, paving the way for the established downtrend of the past two months or so to resume.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

EUR/USD holds above its 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart

US Dollar Weakens Against Major Currencies Today

Today’s percentage movements in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed are set out below. The Australian Dollar was the currency against which the US Dollar performed best.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.31%	-0.16%	-0.36%	-0.07%	-0.06%	-0.44%	-0.38%
EUR	0.31%		0.14%	-0.05%	0.25%	0.23%	-0.14%	-0.09%
GBP	0.16%	-0.14%		-0.19%	0.10%	0.10%	-0.27%	-0.23%
JPY	0.36%	0.05%	0.19%		0.27%	0.30%	-0.09%	-0.03%
CAD	0.07%	-0.25%	-0.10%	-0.27%		0.03%	-0.35%	-0.30%
AUD	0.06%	-0.23%	-0.10%	-0.30%	-0.03%		-0.36%	-0.32%
NZD	0.44%	0.14%	0.27%	0.09%	0.35%	0.36%		0.08%
CHF	0.38%	0.09%	0.23%	0.03%	0.30%	0.32%	-0.08%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. To read USD (base)/JPY (quote), for instance, start with the US Dollar on the left and follow its row across to the Japanese Yen column; the intersecting cell gives the percentage change for that pair.