EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Euro challenges resistance at 0.8360 as Pound momentum fades

Resistance around 0.8360 comes into focus as EUR/GBP rebounds nearly 0.3% on Monday.
Stronger-than-expected activity across most major member countries accompanies an upward revision to the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI.
Sterling finds no support from the UK Manufacturing PMI, which matched the preliminary reading.

Positive Eurozone manufacturing figures, alongside a reversal in oil prices, are underpinning a marked recovery in the Euro (EUR) against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday. On the daily chart, EUR/GBP is up nearly 0.3%, testing resistance around 0.8360 at the lows recorded on 27 and 28 October.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

An upward revision has taken the final Eurozone HCOB manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to 52.7, compared with the preliminary estimate of 52.4, narrowing the gap with September’s 52.9. Germany’s final PMI matched the estimate of 52.7. Readings for France and Spain were revised upwards, whereas activity in Italy unexpectedly contracted.

October’s final UK S&P Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.8, confirming the preliminary reading and marking the sector’s strongest pace of expansion in five months, up from 51.9 in September. Although the figures reinforce hopes of a quarter-point increase in the Bank of England’s (BoE) Bank Rate on Thursday, they have offered little support to sterling.

Technical Analysis: Selling pressure eases, though the recovery remains fragile

At 0.8356, EUR/GBP retains a neutral near-term bias, with buyers of the Euro still unable to clear a former support level. Having recovered from oversold territory, the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is close to 50, signalling balanced momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is edging above zero with a marginally positive reading, suggesting modest stabilisation rather than a clear trend.

A break above 0.8360 would be needed to open the way for a more substantial recovery. The next obstacle could then be the 28 October high at 0.8380, although confirmation of a trend change would hinge on the 26 October high near 0.8400.

Conversely, an inability to push beyond 0.8360 could bring sellers back into play, prompting a retest of Friday’s lows near 0.8320. Further downside levels would be the late-February 2025 highs around 0.8300, followed by the key support zone between 0.8220 and 0.8240, encompassing the December 2024 and February 2025 lows.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Pound Sterling Performs Best Against Australian Dollar Today

Against the major currencies listed below, the British Pound (GBP) recorded its strongest performance against the Australian Dollar today. The table sets out sterling’s percentage changes against each currency.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.46%	-0.20%	0.22%	-0.00%	0.30%	0.13%	-0.63%
EUR	0.46%		0.27%	0.67%	0.45%	0.75%	0.59%	-0.14%
GBP	0.20%	-0.27%		0.45%	0.19%	0.49%	0.32%	-0.40%
JPY	-0.22%	-0.67%	-0.45%		-0.21%	0.07%	-0.10%	-0.85%
CAD	0.00%	-0.45%	-0.19%	0.21%		0.31%	0.12%	-0.59%
AUD	-0.30%	-0.75%	-0.49%	-0.07%	-0.31%		-0.17%	-0.89%
NZD	-0.13%	-0.59%	-0.32%	0.10%	-0.12%	0.17%		-0.71%
CHF	0.63%	0.14%	0.40%	0.85%	0.59%	0.89%	0.71%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency along the top row. Selecting the British Pound on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar, for instance, gives the percentage change for GBP (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.