Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC faces potential volatility shock from US midterm elections

• The key 200-day EMA continues to underpin Bitcoin, while the 100-day EMA limits gains; a break beyond either boundary is likely to establish its next directional bias.
• Tuesday's modest $115.56 million outflow from BTC spot ETFs points to continued investor caution before the US midterm election results.
• Although analysts retain a bullish view on BTC, their expectation of a sizeable move in either direction leads them to favour volatility-based strategies rather than directional positions.

Tuesday's $115.56 million in modest net outflows from spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) reflects institutional caution ahead of the US midterm election results. On Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading between its key 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This price behaviour points to consolidation, with a move beyond either boundary likely to establish BTC's next directional bias. 

Despite maintaining a bullish view on the Crypto King, K33 Research analysts see scope for a volatility shock in either direction. They therefore favour strategies based on volatility over outright directional positions.

Investors remain cautious with a modest bearish bias

SoSoValue figures show that BTC spot ETFs registered modest outflows of $115.56 million on Tuesday, following Monday's $398.62 million withdrawal. Institutional demand has thus continued to soften this week. These successive daily withdrawals indicate that investors are exercising caution ahead of the US midterm election results, while retaining a mildly bearish stance on BTC. A continuation and acceleration of outflows over the rest of the week could lead to a deeper correction in Bitcoin.

US midterm elections leave analysts expecting a sharp move in either direction

In its Tuesday report, K33 Research highlighted the US midterm elections as a key driver of market volatility this week. Since then, Democrats have gained control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. This creates the prospect of divided government and potential political deadlock for the rest of US President Donald Trump's term, which K33 Research regards as the most market-friendly outcome.

According to the report, a substantial shift in K33's proprietary regime indicator has been driven by diverging positioning in Bitcoin's Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures and perpetual (perp) futures. Comparisons with past regimes point to increased BTC volatility but no clear directional signal: earlier episodes have featured steep drawdowns as well as strong rallies. 

The analyst added: “While we remain bullish on BTC and believe the bottom is in, thin support and elevated leverage leave room for further downside and amplified liquidation-driven moves,”

With three-month implied volatility also close to historically low levels, K33 favours taking positions in volatility rather than choosing a direction. In particular, it favours long straddles, which could benefit from sizeable post-election moves in Bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Price holds between the 100-day and 200-day EMAs

At the time of writing on Wednesday, Bitcoin stands at $77,876, with price consolidating between the 100-day and 200-day EMAs. The 50-day EMA at $80,044 continues to cap BTC's upside, reinforcing the prospect of further consolidation. 

On the daily chart, a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading close to 40 points to muted bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is also still below zero. Together, these signals indicate weakness and support the view that trading remains range-bound beneath nearby resistance.

A daily close above the 100-day EMA at $77,794 would support a cautiously bullish outlook. That would put the 50-day EMA at $80,044 in focus as the next target, ahead of horizontal resistance at $85,000. Should prices climb further, previous supply is likely to return at that level.

Failure to secure a close above the 100-day EMA, however, could prolong the correction towards initial support at the 200-day EMA, near $76,479. Closing below that level on a daily basis would undermine BTC's technical structure and leave it exposed to a broader correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)