USD/CHF Price Forecast: US Dollar stays exposed to downside risk below 0.8220

A daily loss of more than 0.5% persists for USD/CHF despite a rebound from eight-week lows of 0.8127.
Broad-based US Dollar selling follows US President Donald Trump's midterm election defeat.
A Double Top around 0.8380 is confirmed by Tuesday's rejection at 0.8220.

A decline of more than 0.5% on Wednesday has erased Tuesday's gains in the US Dollar (USD) against the Swiss Franc (CHF), as investors assess the implications of a decisive Democratic victory in the US midterm elections. Having recovered from nearly eight-week lows of 0.8127, USD/CHF is changing hands around 0.8160 in early European trading. Its broader bearish trend, however, remains firmly intact.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Early US election results prompted widespread selling of the US Dollar on Wednesday, revealing an unequivocal rejection of President Donald Trump's policies by voters. Control of Congress and the Senate has passed to the Democratic Party, which has also won staunch Republican strongholds including Kansas, North Carolina, and Texas.

ING’s Chris Turner attributes the recent US Dollar rebound partly to President Trump “accepting these results,” which has curbed further post-midterm selling. He also says the recovery “probably owes to the fact that the Democrats do not take office until January,”

Nevertheless, Turner offers a caution: “ A Democrat Congress would be a mild dollar negative – both in terms of what it would mean for the AI story and the prospect of a prolonged US government shutdown potentially from next summer.”

Technical Analysis: USD/CHF Confirms Double Top Around 0.8380

Despite recovering to 0.8159 in early European trading, USD/CHF continues to move within a bearish channel. Tuesday's rejection at 0.8220 confirms a Double Top (DT) at 0.8380, lending further encouragement to sellers. Four-hour momentum indicators support this assessment: the Relative Strength Index (14) sits below 40 but above oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally negative. Together, they suggest that near-term upward momentum remains fragile.

Although declines have so far found support around 0.8130, the DT's measured target points to the early September lows between 0.8050 and 0.8070. For the bulls, a break above the pattern's neckline at 0.8220 would be needed to turn attention towards the early November highs around 0.8250, followed by the 28 October high of 0.8313.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Swiss Franc Makes Its Largest Gain Against the US Dollar Today

Today's percentage movements in the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the major currencies listed are set out below. Its strongest performance was against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.50%	-0.54%	-0.27%	-0.39%	-0.55%	-0.26%	-0.57%
EUR	0.50%		-0.04%	0.23%	0.09%	-0.07%	0.23%	-0.08%
GBP	0.54%	0.04%		0.28%	0.15%	-0.01%	0.26%	-0.05%
JPY	0.27%	-0.23%	-0.28%		-0.13%	-0.30%	-0.02%	-0.33%
CAD	0.39%	-0.09%	-0.15%	0.13%		-0.17%	0.11%	-0.19%
AUD	0.55%	0.07%	0.01%	0.30%	0.17%		0.27%	-0.02%
NZD	0.26%	-0.23%	-0.26%	0.02%	-0.11%	-0.27%		-0.30%
CHF	0.57%	0.08%	0.05%	0.33%	0.19%	0.02%	0.30%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Swiss Franc on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for CHF (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.