EUR/GBP: Sterling still too strong vs Euro – ING

ING’s Francesco Pesole says EUR/GBP trades 2.6–2.8% below short-term fair value, reflecting a French risk premium but still looking stretched. Following a hawkish Bank of England hike, he expects further tightening to be limited, sees market pricing for multiple cuts as too aggressive, and views a move back toward 0.840 in EUR/GBP as the most realistic outcome in coming weeks.

Fair value points to higher EUR/GBP

"EUR/GBP continues to trade sharply below its short-term fair value, by around 2.6-2.8% according to our models. That continues to reflect the euro’s idiosyncratic premium related to French risk (EUR/GBP has been one of the favourite channels), but even accounting for that, the decline in the pair looks a bit too stretched."

"The lack of dovish dissenters in November reinforced our view that the BoE will hike again in February, with some risk already in December."

"Market pricing for three more cuts remains far too aggressive in our view, and argues – alongside short-term valuation signals – against further sterling strength against the euro. A return to 0.840 in EUR/GBP remains the most realistic move in the coming weeks, in our view."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)