$100 Breakout in Buyers’ Sights: WTI Oil Price Forecast as upward pressure mounts

$100 in sight for WTI Oil as Middle East supply risks persist.
Above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs, WTI retains a buyer-friendly daily chart.
$100 remains the key breakout level; a decisive breach could open a further advance towards $105.

WTI trades around $99 at the time of writing. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is up 1.40% on the day, rebounding on Thursday to trade near five-week highs. Persistent Middle East tensions continue to heighten supply risks and sustain a sizeable geopolitical risk premium across energy markets.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Fresh developments across the Middle East have intensified concerns about additional disruptions to oil supplies.

Renewed strikes against Iran after the US midterm elections are under consideration by the United States (US) and Israel, according to The New York Times. Iran's energy facilities are among the possible targets.

Following reports of attacks on the Shaybah oil field and King Fahd International Airport, there is little sign of the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis subsiding. In response to the situation, the US State Department has also instructed non-emergency government personnel and their families to depart Saudi Arabia.

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains a significant source of concern. Four vessels engaged in oil transfers in the Gulf were targeted by its navy, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed. In a separate incident, three other ships reportedly struck mines near the Strait and caught fire.

Alternative shipping routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly allowing producers to restore Middle East oil exports to pre-war levels, despite escalating tensions. Gulf producers excluding Iran shipped an average of 24.6 million barrels per day in the week ending 18 October, exceeding the pre-war average of 23.3 million barrels per day, according to Kpler data cited by the Financial Times.

$100 resistance: WTI technical outlook

Around $91, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) sits well below WTI US Oil on the daily chart. The longer-term 100-day and 200-day SMAs are grouped just under $85, reinforcing a bullish near-term bias. Positive momentum is also evident in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands around 64 without yet reaching overbought extremes, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, which remains above zero. An Average Directional Index (ADX) near 27 indicates a moderately strong trend, supporting the firm upside momentum.

At $100.00, the psychological threshold presents immediate resistance; an extended bullish advance would then face a barrier at $105. Today's opening area near $98.98 suggests initial support. Below that, the 50-day SMA around $91.01 provides stronger structural support. A deeper medium-term support band comprises the 100-day SMA at $84.67 and the 200-day SMA at $84.11, followed by horizontal levels at $80.00 and $75.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI Oil: Key Questions

What defines WTI Oil?

Traded on international markets, WTI Oil is a crude oil grade whose initials stand for West Texas Intermediate. Alongside Brent and Dubai Crude, it is one of three major types. Its relatively low gravity earns it the description “light”, while its low sulphur content makes it “sweet”. Regarded as high-quality oil, WTI is easy to refine. Production originates in the United States, with distribution through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. WTI serves as an oil market benchmark, and its price is regularly cited by the media.

WTI Oil pricing: Which factors matter?

Supply and demand underpin WTI Oil prices, as they do for all assets. Stronger global growth can increase demand, while weaker growth can have the reverse effect. Supply disruptions arising from political instability, wars or sanctions can affect prices. Another major influence is the production decisions of OPEC, a group of leading oil-producing countries. Because oil is traded mainly in US Dollars, the currency's value also affects WTI Crude Oil prices: a weaker US Dollar can make oil more affordable, whereas a stronger dollar can do the opposite.

WTI Oil and inventories: How are prices affected?

Published weekly by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA), oil inventory reports influence WTI Oil prices by showing shifts in supply and demand. Falling stocks may signal stronger demand and lift oil prices; rising stocks may point to greater supply and weigh on prices. Each Tuesday brings the API report, followed by the EIA release the next day. The two sets of results generally align, with a difference of no more than 1% in 75% of cases. As the EIA is a government agency, its figures are regarded as more reliable.

OPEC decisions: What do they mean for WTI Oil prices?

At meetings held twice a year, the 12 oil-producing nations in OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) jointly set production quotas for member countries. These decisions frequently affect WTI Oil prices. Lower quotas can constrain supply and drive prices higher, while increased OPEC production has the reverse effect. The broader OPEC+ grouping adds ten non-OPEC members, most notably Russia.