$1.6M by 2036: Why does Bitwise think Bitcoin could reach that level?

• $1.6 million is Bitwise's revised 10-year Bitcoin price target. That compares with $1.3 million a year earlier.
• A $147 trillion asset pool is controlled by institutional investors. A 1-5% allocation to Bitcoin could create demand of $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion.
• A projected decline in Bitcoin's annual supply inflation to 0.4% in 2028 and 0.2% in 2032 reinforces the case for its scarcity.

$1.6 million by 2036 is possible for Bitcoin (BTC), according to asset manager Bitwise. Its outlook rests on demand driven by institutional investment, constrained supply and mounting concerns about currency devaluation.

$1.6 million: Bitwise's Bitcoin target for the next decade

An annualised Bitcoin return of 34.3% over the next decade is projected in the company's Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, published on Wednesday. This lifts the forecast from $1.3 million by 2035, a previous projection that implied an annualised return of 28.3%.

Bitwise wrote: "We believe that Bitcoin will be the best-performing major asset in the world over the next decade,"

Institutional adoption underpins much of the report's bullish case. Large investors have considerable scope to build their Bitcoin positions, Bitwise argued. They oversee roughly $147 trillion in assets, yet most have no allocation to Bitcoin.

Over the next decade, Bitwise expects these investors to direct between 1% and 5% of their portfolios towards Bitcoin. The resulting demand could total $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion.

Less than three years since launch, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) already have $108 billion in assets, Bitwise noted. Wider availability of Bitcoin products on wealth management platforms is expected to accelerate institutional inflows from 2027, the firm said.

21 million BTC supply cap supports Bitcoin outlook

A fixed supply also anchors Bitwise's valuation case. Of the leading cryptocurrency's maximum supply of 21 million BTC, approximately 20.1 million is already circulating.

Under Bitcoin's predetermined issuance schedule, annual supply inflation is expected to decline from the report's stated 0.8% to 0.4% in 2028 and 0.2% in 2032. Gold, by contrast, has an annual inflation rate of approximately 2%.

Bitwise stated: "Importantly, Bitcoin’s supply is inelastic: No amount of demand for Bitcoin or change in its price will cause more Bitcoin to be produced,"

With supply unable to expand in response, stronger demand could drive Bitcoin's price upwards, the firm argued.

Government debt growth could lift Bitcoin demand

Concerns over fiat currency devaluation, coupled with expanding government debt, could also underpin Bitcoin's long-term value, according to Bitwise.

US federal debt totalled $40.2 trillion in September 2026, the report said, with annual interest payments at $1.1 trillion. As debt burdens grow, Bitwise expects pressure on governments to intensify. That could encourage investors to look beyond traditional currencies.

In Bitwise's view, Bitcoin stands to benefit from both an expanding store-of-value market and an increase in its share of that market.

The valuation model offers no guarantee of future results, Bitwise cautioned. Potential obstacles to its long-term forecast include technological threats such as quantum computing and AI-driven mathematical advances, as well as regulatory and government risks.