1.4000 Support in Focus: USD/CAD Price Forecast After Drop Below 50-Day EMA

1.3732, the five-month low, is a potential downside target for USD/CAD.
At 39, the 14-day Relative Strength Index points to continued selling pressure.
At 1.4072, the 50-day EMA marks the first resistance level.

USD/CAD trades near 1.4020. During Thursday’s European session, the pair is extending its decline for a sixth consecutive day. Trading below both the 50- and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) keeps the near-term outlook bearish.

A retreat from recent highs has left USD/CAD under pressure. With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 39 and moving towards oversold territory, the signal favours sustained downside pressure over an imminent reversal. This comes even as the FXS Fed Sentiment Index eases from earlier extremes.

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A further decline could take USD/CAD towards 1.3732, the five-month low reached on 21 May. Beyond that, support stands at 1.3481, the lowest level since October 2024.

A recovery could bring the 50-day EMA at 1.4072 into focus as initial resistance, ahead of the nine-day EMA at 1.4113. A move above both averages would support a test of 1.4299, the 18-month high set on 14 October.

USD/CAD faces pressure as IMF flags wider North American growth divergence

A widening gap in North American growth prospects stands out in the latest IMF projections, according to strategists at Societe Generale. They note that “with the IMF’s US growth forecast revised up to 2.5% this year (while remaining at 2.1% in 2027), the North American growth gap is widening.” Although “the chart on the right shows relative Bloomberg consensus growth forecasts for 2027,” they describe the IMF’s assessment as “even less favourable for Canada,” citing “1.2% growth in Canada next year versus 2.1% in the US.” Turning to interest rates, the strategists add that “the chart on the left shows the two-year rate differential plotted against USD/CAD,” highlighting the continuing role of relative growth expectations and short-end yield spreads in shaping the Canadian Dollar’s performance against the US Dollar.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Canadian Dollar Performance Today

The Canadian Dollar’s strongest performance today was against the New Zealand Dollar. The table below sets out today’s percentage changes in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.05%	-0.09%	-0.75%	-0.21%	0.18%	0.23%	-0.59%
EUR	0.05%		-0.06%	-0.72%	-0.20%	0.23%	0.28%	-0.56%
GBP	0.09%	0.06%		-0.65%	-0.15%	0.27%	0.32%	-0.50%
JPY	0.75%	0.72%	0.65%		0.52%	0.93%	0.95%	0.15%
CAD	0.21%	0.20%	0.15%	-0.52%		0.40%	0.47%	-0.37%
AUD	-0.18%	-0.23%	-0.27%	-0.93%	-0.40%		0.04%	-0.77%
NZD	-0.23%	-0.28%	-0.32%	-0.95%	-0.47%	-0.04%		-0.79%
CHF	0.59%	0.56%	0.50%	-0.15%	0.37%	0.77%	0.79%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Canadian Dollar on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for CAD (base)/USD (quote) in the intersecting cell.