Bitcoin Price Forecast: Geopolitical uncertainty pushes BTC lower despite ETF inflows

• Over 2% is wiped off Bitcoin on Thursday. Most of its gains earlier this week are now at risk.
• $528.40 million flowed into US-listed Bitcoin on Wednesday, extending this week’s run of positive flows to three consecutive days.
• Risk appetite weakens as Middle East tensions intensify, limiting BTC’s recovery.

More than 2% is wiped off Bitcoin (BTC) on Thursday. Trading below $83,000 at the time of writing, it risks surrendering its gains from earlier this week. Institutional demand nevertheless continues to provide support: spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have attracted inflows for a third consecutive day so far this week. 

Caution remains warranted for traders as mounting Middle East tensions curb risk appetite and constrain the Crypto King’s recovery.

$528.40 million inflow signals renewed institutional demand

Signs of renewed institutional demand have emerged this week. According to SoSoValue, BTC spot ETFs attracted $528.40 million on Wednesday, their third consecutive day of inflows so far this week. By Wednesday, weekly inflows had also surpassed $1 billion, ending two consecutive weeks of outflows. BTC could build on its rebound if inflows persist and accelerate over the remainder of the week.

Separately, approval for the Bitcoin Fund ETF (BBIT) from the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) was announced on Thursday by BIT Asset Management AG, BIT’s wholly owned Swiss asset management subsidiary.

FINMA confirmed that the fund is Switzerland’s first exchange-traded fund to invest directly in Bitcoin. Currently, it is also Europe’s only spot Bitcoin ETF. Trading on the SIX Swiss Exchange is expected to start in November.

By widening institutional access to BTC, the launch could support broader adoption and reinforce the Crypto King’s long-term prospects.

BTC rebound constrained by Middle East tensions

Four vessels involved in illegal oil transfers in the northern Persian Gulf were hit simultaneously and caught fire on Wednesday after being tracked by its forces, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy said on Thursday, according to Reuters.

Three additional vessels struck mines west of the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC said. It also warned the US military that further provocations could prompt a broader response against its bases in the region.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile said the country was ready for diplomacy, while stressing that it was also prepared to defend itself. 

With the US showing no willingness to reach an understanding, there was little reason to anticipate progress now, Araghchi added. 

In a separate report, The New York Times said the US and Israel had prepared plans for a brief but intensive military campaign against Iran following the US midterm elections.

The geopolitical risk premium remains in place as a result of these developments, weakening risk appetite and restricting BTC’s recovery.

$85,000 rejection shapes Bitcoin technical outlook

$82,287 is Bitcoin’s price at the time of writing on Thursday. The bias remains constructive, with the price above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are grouped between approximately $80,900 and $76,100. 

The broader uptrend appears intact given this stacked EMA alignment. However, a Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 49 and a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggest cooling upward momentum, with BTC consolidating rather than advancing in a strong directional move.

The horizontal barrier around $85,000 provides immediate resistance. A break above it would open the way to fresh highs and could restore bullish momentum. 

Initial downside support lies at the 50-day EMA around $80,873. Further below, the 100-day EMA near $77,458 and the 200-day EMA near $76,138 define a deeper demand zone. A failure of that zone would be needed to materially weaken the prevailing bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)