Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD gains above $57.50 as Fed rate hike bets decrease

Silver advanced as diminishing market expectations for an October Federal Reserve interest rate hike boosted non-yielding assets.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no signals on upcoming October rate decisions during his Friday International Monetary Fund speech.
CME FedWatch Tool suggests that traders price in nearly an 84% chance the Fed keeps rates unchanged this month.

Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground after posting losses in the previous day, trading around $57.60 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. Silver climbed amid fading expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in October.

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Market sentiment shifted after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke at an International Monetary Fund event on Friday, stating that he does not prejudge interest-rate decisions and offering no clear indication of whether the central bank will raise or hold short-term rates at its upcoming October 27–28 meeting.

Market expectations for a rate increase have dropped significantly. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in nearly an 83.9% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged later this month, a sharp rise from the 49% chance priced in just a month earlier.

Safe-haven demand further supported precious metals as rising anxieties around AI-related investments sparked a broader stock market selloff and dragged bond yields down. Rabobank observes that recent market turbulence has been particularly acute in the AI complex, noting that “AI-related stocks have had a tough few days.” At the same time, stress has also surfaced in associated credit markets. The bank notes that “CoreWeave’s bonds made headlines for not exactly the best reasons” and adds that, according to the Financial Times, investors are now “dumping data centre bonds” more broadly, underscoring how quickly sentiment has soured across this previously favoured theme.

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.