1.3320 Area, 38.2% Fibo.: GBP/USD Price Forecast as stronger USD pushes pair to one-week low

A third consecutive day of selling weighs on GBP/USD on Tuesday as the USD strengthens broadly.
Ahead of the UK Autumn Budget and the crucial FOMC decision, further losses appear limited.
Aggressive bearish positioning also calls for caution given the technical picture.

GBP/USD is down 0.15% on the day. Persistent US Dollar (USD) buying has left the pair trading near 1.3320 after it reached a one-week low in the first half of the European session. Tuesday marks a third consecutive daily decline, extending the retreat from last week's high around 1.3420, the strongest level since 16 September.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Wednesday's major event risks could keep traders on the sidelines, potentially limiting further declines. Against the backdrop of Prime Minister Andy Burnham's large spending plans, UK Chancellor John Healey is due to present his first Autumn Budget. The crucial US Federal Reserve (Fed) decision follows at the end of a two-day meeting. Its outcome will shape USD movements and give GBP/USD fresh direction.

The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3401 remains a mild technical cap after the pair recently failed to establish itself above that level. GBP/USD has slipped towards the middle of its recent Fibonacci retracement range. Initial support lies near 1.3311, the 38.2% retracement. Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains above zero, its positive line is contracting.

Just below 50, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to improving but still fragile momentum within a broader bearish structure. A sustained move below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement would therefore bring the 50.0% level at 1.3278 into view, followed by the deeper 61.8% retracement at 1.3244. Together, these levels form a consolidation floor for pullbacks.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance at 1.3353, the 23.6% retracement. Beyond that sit the 200-day EMA at 1.3401 and the recent swing high near 1.3420. Only a daily close above this resistance cluster would ease the prevailing bearish pressure and create scope for a more sustained rebound.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

GBP/USD: daily technical chart

0.57% Against EUR: US Dollar Performance This Week

This week, the US Dollar (USD) recorded its strongest performance against the Euro. The table below sets out its percentage changes against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.57%	0.35%	0.43%	-0.19%	0.14%	0.02%	0.52%
EUR	-0.57%		-0.23%	-0.19%	-0.80%	-0.49%	-0.61%	-0.11%
GBP	-0.35%	0.23%		-0.02%	-0.57%	-0.26%	-0.32%	0.09%
JPY	-0.43%	0.19%	0.02%		-0.56%	-0.34%	-0.37%	0.00%
CAD	0.19%	0.80%	0.57%	0.56%		0.26%	0.13%	0.67%
AUD	-0.14%	0.49%	0.26%	0.34%	-0.26%		-0.11%	0.18%
NZD	-0.02%	0.61%	0.32%	0.37%	-0.13%	0.11%		0.47%
CHF	-0.52%	0.11%	-0.09%	-0.00%	-0.67%	-0.18%	-0.47%

To read the heat map of percentage movements between major currencies, select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, start with the US Dollar on the left and follow its row across to the Japanese Yen. The figure at that intersection shows the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote).